Did the war in Iraq ever actually end?
After the fall of Baghdad and Tikrit, US forces declared victory in Iraq. And certainly, the central command infrastructure has been dismantled and the bulk of the army dispersed or surrendered. But there is growing speculation that the guerilla attacks on coalition troops in Iraq are not just disgruntled irregulars, but actually a continuation of the Hussein regime's defense plan, and that Saddam himself may still be in charge of the resistance in some capacity. This is borne out by the fact that the Taliban has used almost the exact same tactic in Afghanistan, where they continue to be a power. These are a few excerpts from an analysis on Strategic Forecasting:
http://www.stratfor.com/corporate/in...storyId=219007
The United States is now clearly involved in a guerrilla war in the Sunni regions of Iraq. As a result, U.S. forces are engaging in counterinsurgency operations, which historically have proven most difficult and trying -- for both American forces and American politics. Suppressing a guerrilla operation without alienating the indigenous population represents an extreme challenge to the United States that at this point does not appear avoidable -- and the seriousness of which does not appear to be broadly understood.
...Since intelligence is the key, we must consider the fact that this war began in an intelligence failure. The core assumption of U.S. intelligence was that once the Baath regime lost Baghdad, it would simply disappear. Stratfor had speculated that Saddam Hussein had a postwar plan for a national redoubt in the north and northeast, but our analysis rejected the idea of a guerrilla war on the basis that Iraq's terrain would not support one.
Nevertheless, it is the strategy the Baathists apparently have chosen to follow. In retrospect, the strange capitulation of Baghdad -- where large Iraqi formations simply melted away -- appears to have been calculated to some degree. In Afghanistan, the Taliban forces were not defeated in the cities. They declined combat, withdrawing and dispersing, then reorganizing and returning to guerrilla warfare. Hussein appears to have taken a page from that strategy. Certainly, most of his forces did not carry out a strategic retreat to return as guerrilla fighters; most went home. However, a cadre of troops -- first encountered as Mujahideen fighters in Basra, An Nasiriyah and Karbala -- seem to have withdrawn to fight as guerrillas.
What is important is that they have retained cohesion. That does not necessarily mean that they are all being controlled from a central location, although the tempo of operations -- daily attacks in different locations -- seems to imply an element of planning by someone. It does mean that the basic infrastructure needed to support the operation was in place prior to the war:
1. Weapons and reserve weapons caches placed in locations known to some level of the command.
2. A communications system, whether simply messengers or communications gear, linking components together by some means.
3. Intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities designed to identify targets and limit enemy intelligence from penetrating their capabilities.
Back to me...
Anyway, I think this is interesting. The degree to which this was planned for is of course debatable, but as the article above points out, certainly some provisions were made. And logistically, this is the only way the war could have played out for the Iraqis (barring a mass anti-coalition uprising which never came), so planning a prolonged resistance is really the only thing that makes sense if they were serious about maintaining power.
Today the US initiated Operation Sidewinder, attempting to crack down on guerillas. This sort of thing traditionally plays into the hands of a resistance, forcing the occupying force to become more authoritarian to maintain order, thus alienating the populace. It remains to be seen what success they'll have in taking the guerillas out - even the most ardent flagwaver can't have a lot of faith in western intelligence elements currently operating in Iraq at the moment. But I just think it's interesting that the Hussein regime may have duped everyone into thinking it was dead. What do you guys think?
