Video Game Console Market Entering Cyclical Downturn

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Originally Posted by Business Wire

Video Game Console Market Entering Cyclical Downturn Reports In-Stat/MDR

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 24, 2003--The video game console business again surpassed box office receipts in the United States in 2002, indicating that the video game console business is big business, reports In-Stat/MDR (http://www.instat.com). However, according to the high-tech market research firm, with the console business following its typical cyclical trend, 2003 shipment and revenues are expected to fall from 2002 levels. 2003 worldwide console shipments are expected to drop by more than 2 million units from 2002 shipments.

Lower 2003 shipments from the PlayStation 2 (PS2) and PSOne consoles are primarily responsible for the drop-off. Both Nintendo GameCube and Microsoft Xbox shipments are expected to increase in 2003, but not enough to offset reduced Sony shipments. Console revenues in 2003 are expected to fall as well, by nearly $2 billion, with both price-cutting and lower shipment numbers responsible for the drop. "Overall, the console market is seeing great change with the current generation of consoles and the availability of online gaming," said Brian O'Rourke, a senior analyst with In-Stat/MDR. "We expect all three competitors to release their next generation consoles in the second half of 2005, when this market will trend upward again, with revenue levels reaching those of 2002 in about 2006."

In-Stat/MDR has also found that:
-- Sony shipped its 60 millionth PS2 console on Sept. 6, 2003, a number that the Microsoft Xbox and Nintendo GameCube will not reach. Sony also appears to have successfully established the PS2 as an online platform with its Network Adaptor product.

-- Over the past year, Microsoft has successfully established the Xbox as the No. 2 console worldwide, surpassing the Nintendo GameCube. It has also attempted to establish its Xbox Live online service in all regions of the world. It has achieved initial online success in North America, but faces challenges in Europe and Japan.

-- Nintendo has had a very difficult year. Disappointing sales of its GameCube have caused more bad news for the company, from disappointing earnings reports to some third party developers beginning to scale back their commitment to the platform. Nintendo has acknowledged flaws in their GameCube marketing strategy, and hopes to recover their former standing in the console space. However, with two solid, deep-pocketed competitors, Nintendo faces the biggest challenge in its corporate history.

The report, "The Cycle Turns: Video Game Console Shipments & Revenue to Decline in 2003" (#IN030703ME), includes a five-year shipment and revenue forecast for each current generation console: the Sony PS2, Microsoft Xbox and Nintendo GameCube, broken down by region. There is also a forecast for online console gaming subscribers through 2007. Shipment and revenue forecasts for the next generation of consoles are also provided. The three participants in this market, Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft, are profiled in depth in four areas: console business, marketing strategies, online plans and shipment analysis.

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Just reaffirming what we already know I guess. The videogame industrty is cyclical, we hit the downturn, and everything will come up roses when the next gen comes out.

I'm interested to see if Xbox is still #2 after this holiday season...

If GameCube surpasses Xbox in the holiday season then something is seriously wrong with the world.

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Originally Posted by diffusionx

If GameCube surpasses Xbox in the holiday season then something is seriously wrong with the world.

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Earlier this year I would disagree, but with both of their respective holiday lineups, now, I couldn't agree more.

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Originally Posted by diffusionx

If Playstation 2 surpasses Gamecube in the holiday season then something is seriously wrong with the world.

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.................:chick:

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Originally Posted by diffusionx

If GameCube surpasses Xbox in the holiday season then something is seriously wrong with the world.

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Dude, everytime I see an anti-Nintendo remark and nothing else, I know exactly whose name I'm going to see when I look over. Yep, a gay-ass troll is j00. What is your life like that bashing Nintendo on TNL over and over and over, day after day is somehow gratifying?

Anyway... after reading that quote in the first post about Nintendo's dismal sales I started trying to imagine the videogame industry without them and all their franchises (and this thought was bubbling before i even read troll-boy's bleatings so don't connect these two paragraphs). Or if they'd never been. Where we would be now? I love the games my Sony and Sega consoles have brought me over the years but I could live in a videogame world without them. Nintendo though... they still epitomize everything that's great about videogames as far as I'm concerned. Unlike with Sony or Microsoft, nobody would be able to quite fill the void if they disappeared.

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Originally Posted by Compass

What is your life like that bashing Nintendo on TNL over and over and over, day after day is somehow gratifying?

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Nintendo fucked his mom, beat up his dad, and ran over his cat all on the same day

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Originally Posted by Compass

Dude, everytime I see an anti-Nintendo remark and nothing else, I know exactly whose name I'm going to see when I look over. Yep, a gay-ass troll is j00. What is your life like that bashing Nintendo on TNL over and over and over, day after day is somehow gratifying?

Anyway... after reading that quote in the first post about Nintendo's dismal sales I started trying to imagine the videogame industry without them and all their franchises (and this thought was bubbling before i even read troll-boy's bleatings so don't connect these two paragraphs). Or if they'd never been. Where we would be now? I love the games my Sony and Sega consoles have brought me over the years but I could live in a videogame world without them. Nintendo though... they still epitomize everything that's great about videogames as far as I'm concerned. Unlike with Sony or Microsoft, nobody would be able to quite fill the void if they disappeared.

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Sony- in touch
Microsoft- in touch
Nintendo- out of touch...


Your right no one would, and it shames me to say that Nintendo's biggest problem is themselves. I was never a Nintendo basher, and still don't consider myself one. But they really have no idea how to sell a console in America anymore, and its starting to look like they are losing touch in Japan as well.

Get off your Nintendo soapbox before you fall off, cause every time I hear some nostalgic for 1992 scrub,bitch about how unfair this market, and these people are to Nintendo, I feel sick. Microsoft did everything right when they came in, and are now if you really think about it, the only console that you "don't" you don't have to add hardware to too enjoy every game thats released. Oh my, remember when consoles were that by definition?

Nintendo did this to Nintendo, bub. They lost touch with how to win in the console market, they lost touch with their fans with this gba connectivity thing and if they can become No.2 this holiday season, they will realize what Microsoft had to realize while they were No.2, and thats simple...

That this is as far as they go this generation.

Well, mostly I'm lamenting in advance my own potential loss were Nintendo to drop out of the console business. They've made far too much money for me to really feel bad for them.

And they've sold their console just fine to me and others like me who still enjoy what they do. They're just not appealing to bloodthirsty GTA whores which is indeed the current mass-market.

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Originally Posted by Compass

Dude, everytime I see an anti-Nintendo remark and nothing else, I know exactly whose name I'm going to see when I look over. Yep, a gay-ass troll is j00. What is your life like that bashing Nintendo on TNL over and over and over, day after day is somehow gratifying?

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Go fuck yourself. If anything it was a pro-Xbox statement. If there was justice in this world the Xbox would be #1.

I dont have any fucking GTA games, either.

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Originally Posted by youandwhosearmy

Sony- in touch
Microsoft- in touch
Nintendo- out of touch...


. Microsoft did everything right when they came in, and are now if you really think about it, the only console that you "don't" you don't have to add hardware to too enjoy every game thats released. Oh my, remember when consoles were that by definition?

Nintendo did this to Nintendo, bub. They lost touch with how to win in the console market, they lost touch with their fans with this gba connectivity thing and if they can become No.2 this holiday season, they will realize what Microsoft had to realize while they were No.2, and thats simple...

That this is as far as they go this generation.

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2 points
1. microsoft did not do Everything right, or they would be number one, and they would be selling in japan, they are not.

2. dont have to add hardware for every game? pso required you to purchase a x-box live account to play offline or online, it has since become free with xlb but atlaunch, it was seperate. x-box also was kind enoug to force us to buy a seperate hardware to watch dvd's on their system, did sony do that?

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Originally Posted by diffusionx

If there was justice in this world the Xbox would be #1.

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i can get behind this statement, if x-box takes sony out, which they wont, then more power to them. But you and i know this will never, ever happen.

OMFG TEH GREAT VIDEOGAME CRASH IS HERE!!

*jumps out window*

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Originally Posted by Compass

Well, mostly I'm lamenting in advance my own potential loss were Nintendo to drop out of the console business. They've made far too much money for me to really feel bad for them.

And they've sold their console just fine to me and others like me who still enjoy what they do. They're just not appealing to bloodthirsty GTA whores which is indeed the current mass-market.

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Maybe it's because Nintendo's games aren't as ground breaking or new as GTA 3 was to the market?

Alot of Nintendo's Gamecube offerings have just been more of the same, but with a gimmick. They are fun games, but I feel like I've played them all already, except now they've added a gimmick onto most of their franchises.

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Originally Posted by frostwolf ex

2 points
1. microsoft did not do Everything right, or they would be number one, and they would be selling in japan, they are not.

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I agree about Japan but even if they had done everything right, there's no way they could have topped 60 million systems in 2 years.

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2. dont have to add hardware for every game? pso required you to purchase a x-box live account to play offline or online, it has since become free with xlb but atlaunch, it was seperate. x-box also was kind enoug to force us to buy a seperate hardware to watch dvd's on their system, did sony do that?

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Nah, you just had to buy a memory card to save your games, a multi-tap to play 4 players, a DVD remote for your movies, and a network adapter for online play. ;)

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Originally Posted by youandwhosearmy

Sony- in touch
Microsoft- in touch
Nintendo- out of touch...


Your right no one would, and it shames me to say that Nintendo's biggest problem is themselves. I was never a Nintendo basher, and still don't consider myself one. But they really have no idea how to sell a console in America anymore, and its starting to look like they are losing touch in Japan as well.

Get off your Nintendo soapbox before you fall off, cause every time I hear some nostalgic for 1992 scrub,bitch about how unfair this market, and these people are to Nintendo, I feel sick. Microsoft did everything right when they came in, and are now if you really think about it, the only console that you "don't" you don't have to add hardware to too enjoy every game thats released. Oh my, remember when consoles were that by definition?

Nintendo did this to Nintendo, bub. They lost touch with how to win in the console market, they lost touch with their fans with this gba connectivity thing and if they can become No.2 this holiday season, they will realize what Microsoft had to realize while they were No.2, and thats simple...

That this is as far as they go this generation.

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How is MS doing everything right? They are still making losses on the Xbox and fully intend to keep doing so until atleast next gen. The fact is that MS had money to burn for the sake of getting a a good user base. In that respect, having their ass still handed to them by Sony is not really a sign of success.

Nintendo on the other hand NEED to make money off the console industry, so the mere fact that they are competing with MS where they aren't selling each console at a loss where MS is losing approximately $100 per console and still managing to sell their games despite being constantly screwed over by management who force them to release games within a certain timeframe is pretty remarkable. Then there is the bad press that they are constantly getting which is making it hard for them to sell consoles in much the same way Sega was with the dreamcast.

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Originally Posted by Melf

Nah, you just had to buy a memory card to save your games, a multi-tap to play 4 players, a DVD remote for your movies, and a network adapter for online play. ;)

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touche' its tough for me to actually compliment sony on something, i was mostly talking abotu the dvd player thing, sony didnt force you to buy that. But i agree with everything else, i wonder if sony will fiinally catch up to nintendo, sega, microsoft,and probably some obscure japanese system i never heard of next generation and give us 4 damn controller ports, thats only been out since the n64!!

Sony are PWNING Microsoft and Nintendo simply because "PlayStation" is the most established brandname currently. If you think it's because Sony have a better console, you're a fucking chump.

In the same way, Nintendo aren't losing because they are making shit games, they are losing because efeminate plumbers that wear primary colours don't cut it anymore with today's kids. The fact their games are shit has nothing to do with it.

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Originally Posted by AstroBlue

In the same way, Nintendo aren't losing because they are making shit games, they are losing because efeminate plumbers that wear primary colours don't cut it anymore with today's kids. The fact their games are shit has nothing to do with it.

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Except of course that it is pissing off their usual fanbase (not fanboys, fanbase). People like me. I know you guys like to be all "har har, diffx the nintendo troll, mad because they stole his tiles", but really I was a huge Nintendo fan. I bought every big Nintendo game released from maybe 1992 to 1998. I subscribed to NP for like 3 years for fuck's sake. Waverace 64 was like my religion when I bought it (and so was countless other Nintendo games). Super Metroid is my idea of videogaming perfection. Etc., etc. I dont need to provide tons of examples, just know it is the truth.

But now they just fucking blow. I dont care what any of you fanboys say, Nintendo now isn't the Nintendo I grew up playing and loving. So fuck 'em, and fuck anyone who tries to convince me otherwise. Ill happily give my money to the company I loved, but that company doesn't exist anymore.

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Originally Posted by diffusionx

But now they just fucking blow. I dont care what any of you fanboys say, Nintendo now isn't the Nintendo I grew up playing and loving. So fuck 'em, and fuck anyone who tries to convince me otherwise. Ill happily give my money to the company I loved, but that company doesn't exist anymore.

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Yeah, that is pretty much how I feel. Then again I was feeling this from the NES era. Hated mario 64, Zelda 64. Once in a while they release gems like SSB, SSBM, Zelda:MM. Sadly we probably won't see another game like SSBM from Nintendo anymore as the guy behind it left because of the time constraints he had. Zelda tww missed out on 2 whole dungeons and SMS missed out on a whole lot of polish. Atleast while on the N64 the games were delayed so that the games could be the best they could be, what the hell happened to that Nintendo? :(

Ah well, atleast they are releasing Fire Emblem and Advance wars here now.

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Originally Posted by Damian79

Atleast while on the N64 the games were delayed so that the games could be the best they could be, what the hell happened to that Nintendo? :(

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They got crushed by an over-competitive (if that's possible) market. It's kind of ironic, they are only pumping out games as fast as possible to be competitive, but that's comprimising their quality, which was the main factor that kept them competitive in the past.

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Originally Posted by frostwolf ex

2 points
1. microsoft did not do Everything right, or they would be number one, and they would be selling in japan, they are not.

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it was an ingeneral statement, let me reiterate though for you.

THEY LISTENED

L I S T E N E D


To fans, developers, and the past. They built a console that gamers and developers wanted. No they didn't do everything right, but those four controller ports, built in hard drive, and ethernet port didn't get there because they made a bunch of mistakes...

No one was gonna be number one this generation but Sony, there was no competition and if it was just Nintendo vs. Sony right now, you'd have a much less exciting market.

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2. dont have to add hardware for every game? pso required you to purchase a x-box live account to play offline or online, it has since become free with xlb but atlaunch, it was seperate. x-box also was kind enoug to force us to buy a seperate hardware to watch dvd's on their system, did sony do that?

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Is watching DVD's essential to playing the games?

PSO required something because SEGA wanted a pay for play system. Thats not Microsofts fault.

And y'know what I'll go out and spend thirty bucks on a DVD remote, and you can cuddle up to the store clerk when you go into gamestop and ask for your forty dollar network adapater, ninety nine dollar hard drive, twenty dollar controller adapter (y'know so more than two people can play a four player game), and your ever so essential (cause unless they changed it the hard drive won't save most games) twenty dollar memory card, and wrap them all up in a snuggly soft blanket and make out with em.

and just to get technical with you, cause I feel like it, I said hardware, so don't mention PSO, or XBOX live, I'm talking ADD ON HARDWARE.

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i can get behind this statement, if x-box takes sony out, which they wont, then more power to them. But you and i know this will never, ever happen.

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No it won't, not this generation, maybe not even next generation. But Sony has been great with money, bad with their customers and thats a way to win the fight for either company. Unfortunately Nintendo is not.

I am simply making the statement that right now, the most bang for your dollar and excitement is an Xbox, and really there is nothing to argue with there.

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Originally Posted by Melf

I agree about Japan but even if they had done everything right, there's no way they could have topped 60 million systems in 2 years.



Nah, you just had to buy a memory card to save your games, a multi-tap to play 4 players, a DVD remote for your movies, and a network adapter for online play. ;)

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ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!


You stole it,


my thunder...




there will be a reckoning.