Does anyone else think that Microsoft has a really good shot at becoming number 1?

The DC was the fastest selling console ever and had a ton of hype. Sega even managed tog et a 3 million userbase head start on Sony but the developers pretty much decided stop supporting the system. Sega ran out of money and the rest is history. If Sega was as strong as Nintendo, I believed that they would have been a strong number 2 if they continued supporting ithe DC till now. With games like VF4, Sega Sports series, and probably SC2 etc. exclusive to the DC. I figured that both Microsoft and Nintendo was banking on the DC holding off the PS2 long enough for their systems to be competitive, but the DC died and Sony got too big of a headstart.

Now with the Xenon, I see all major third parties besides square supporting it from the get go. Including EA, one of the things that slowed the DC down. So how can the third parties refuse to mainly support the Xenon if microsoft can get like a 3 million plus userbase headstart right away AND gurantee that the system will last a solid 4 years. third parties would be stupid not to start form the Xenon and port up to the newer systems. If the Xenon has like a 6 months headstart, that's a solid half year of great exclusives, while the other systems would only have first party exclusives. I think the brute force tactic of spending/losing money till you are profitable is goign to work this time due to a headstart rather than playing catch up. Running out of money killed the DC but that isnt a problem for Microsoft. I predict that Microsoft will get 1st or 2nd guranteed. So I guess the revolution is in trouble. :D

i don't think so. The trend in the industry right now is better hardware and Nintendo and Sony will debut with more powerful hardware than MS.

Lets not forget the only high selling franchise for MS is Halo. They completely relie on them. Halo 2.5 at launch is not a good sign.

Sony still has more brand power and will quickly catch up to the MS userbase. Nintendo still has a very loyal fanbase, will continue to make a profit and pull quite a lot of users to their base. I predict next gen all the companies will be closer to each other than their being a clear cut winner. I think Sony will top at #1. Nintendo will have modest support in america and Japan and come at a number 2. MS becuase of their stubborness to make games for Japan will lose all support their ,but still come at a really close third.

I doubt Microsoft will be become number one, US or the world over. They may have the support from several companies, but that doesn't mean a thing if the titles don't garner enough interest from consumers. People will wait and flock toward the PS3 because it's a name that has been around longer and everyone knows has quality games on it; Microsoft still hasn't even gotten close to the userbase the US has with the PS2. Nintendo is another company people may go for, just because it's Nintendo, but I have a feeling that Microsoft will beat them again.

I have a feeling that Nintendo has hit a big decline in the US, but it still won't be enough for MS to beat out Sony in the next gen, unless they have some really heavy hitters hidden away.

I don't think they will surpass Sony, but the gap will close a lot in the U.S. This fact alone pisses off Sony just as much though. :D But hey with gamers it's a great situation, because it pushes Sony to make better systems and vice versa.

I think we can pretty much expect a relapse of what we saw this generation in the next: Sony will have tons of support and all the real console video games, Nintendo will have their wacky golden titles but next to no third party support due to a wacky controller, and Microsoft will have all their PC-ish games along with some of PS3's third party games every now and then, except now they'll look better on the PS3 instead of the XB2.
Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that Xbox 2 is going to be the next Dreamcast and most third parties will probably turn their back on it when the PS3 hits the streets. For the sake of having competition, I hope that doesn't turn out true.

Are we still having this discussion? Unless Sony decides to get out of the market, I don't see them dropping any of their share. But each company is going to make money and in the end, that's all they care about.

SC

MS is #1 in my <3.

Honestly, though, all I know is that I won't be buying a Nintendo console first this coming generation. I waited for the SNES over the Genesis, I waited for the N64 over the PS, and I waited for the GC over the PS2.

It hasn't been working out very well.

MS didn't make money on the Xbox (hardware) this gen, spacecowboy. They were concerned about getting a strong foothold, THEN making money down the line. I'm sure they've money on their games though, maybe enough to balance out the hardware losses. Can MS become #1? Sure, in the same sense that anyone "can". Sony's got folks brainwashed, so they'll get to the top of the mountain without even trying, again.

One thing I'm fairly certain of after watching Icon the other day on G4/Tech TV: Itagaki's games won't be on the Xenon if it's not the most powerful system. He made it clear that the reason he's been making Xbox exclusive games it because it's the most powerful system and he thinks it's a waste of time to work on the other less powerful systems.

So I'm assuming that if the next gen Xenon is the lesser of the consoles specs wise, he'll take his games elsewhere. Of course MS probably knows this is a possibility and will pay an extraordinary amount of money to keep him on their side.