Does anyone else think that Microsoft has a really good shot at becoming number 1?

The DC was the fastest selling console ever and had a ton of hype. Sega even managed tog et a 3 million userbase head start on Sony but the developers pretty much decided stop supporting the system. Sega ran out of money and the rest is history. If Sega was as strong as Nintendo, I believed that they would have been a strong number 2 if they continued supporting ithe DC till now. With games like VF4, Sega Sports series, and probably SC2 etc. exclusive to the DC. I figured that both Microsoft and Nintendo was banking on the DC holding off the PS2 long enough for their systems to be competitive, but the DC died and Sony got too big of a headstart.

Now with the Xenon, I see all major third parties besides square supporting it from the get go. Including EA, one of the things that slowed the DC down. So how can the third parties refuse to mainly support the Xenon if microsoft can get like a 3 million plus userbase headstart right away AND gurantee that the system will last a solid 4 years. third parties would be stupid not to start form the Xenon and port up to the newer systems. If the Xenon has like a 6 months headstart, that's a solid half year of great exclusives, while the other systems would only have first party exclusives. I think the brute force tactic of spending/losing money till you are profitable is goign to work this time due to a headstart rather than playing catch up. Running out of money killed the DC but that isnt a problem for Microsoft. I predict that Microsoft will get 1st or 2nd guranteed. So I guess the revolution is in trouble. :D

i don't think so. The trend in the industry right now is better hardware and Nintendo and Sony will debut with more powerful hardware than MS.

Lets not forget the only high selling franchise for MS is Halo. They completely relie on them. Halo 2.5 at launch is not a good sign.

Sony still has more brand power and will quickly catch up to the MS userbase. Nintendo still has a very loyal fanbase, will continue to make a profit and pull quite a lot of users to their base. I predict next gen all the companies will be closer to each other than their being a clear cut winner. I think Sony will top at #1. Nintendo will have modest support in america and Japan and come at a number 2. MS becuase of their stubborness to make games for Japan will lose all support their ,but still come at a really close third.

I doubt Microsoft will be become number one, US or the world over. They may have the support from several companies, but that doesn't mean a thing if the titles don't garner enough interest from consumers. People will wait and flock toward the PS3 because it's a name that has been around longer and everyone knows has quality games on it; Microsoft still hasn't even gotten close to the userbase the US has with the PS2. Nintendo is another company people may go for, just because it's Nintendo, but I have a feeling that Microsoft will beat them again.

I have a feeling that Nintendo has hit a big decline in the US, but it still won't be enough for MS to beat out Sony in the next gen, unless they have some really heavy hitters hidden away.

I don't think they will surpass Sony, but the gap will close a lot in the U.S. This fact alone pisses off Sony just as much though. :D But hey with gamers it's a great situation, because it pushes Sony to make better systems and vice versa.

I think we can pretty much expect a relapse of what we saw this generation in the next: Sony will have tons of support and all the real console video games, Nintendo will have their wacky golden titles but next to no third party support due to a wacky controller, and Microsoft will have all their PC-ish games along with some of PS3's third party games every now and then, except now they'll look better on the PS3 instead of the XB2.
Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that Xbox 2 is going to be the next Dreamcast and most third parties will probably turn their back on it when the PS3 hits the streets. For the sake of having competition, I hope that doesn't turn out true.

Are we still having this discussion? Unless Sony decides to get out of the market, I don't see them dropping any of their share. But each company is going to make money and in the end, that's all they care about.

SC

MS is #1 in my <3.

Honestly, though, all I know is that I won't be buying a Nintendo console first this coming generation. I waited for the SNES over the Genesis, I waited for the N64 over the PS, and I waited for the GC over the PS2.

It hasn't been working out very well.

MS didn't make money on the Xbox (hardware) this gen, spacecowboy. They were concerned about getting a strong foothold, THEN making money down the line. I'm sure they've money on their games though, maybe enough to balance out the hardware losses. Can MS become #1? Sure, in the same sense that anyone "can". Sony's got folks brainwashed, so they'll get to the top of the mountain without even trying, again.

One thing I'm fairly certain of after watching Icon the other day on G4/Tech TV: Itagaki's games won't be on the Xenon if it's not the most powerful system. He made it clear that the reason he's been making Xbox exclusive games it because it's the most powerful system and he thinks it's a waste of time to work on the other less powerful systems.

So I'm assuming that if the next gen Xenon is the lesser of the consoles specs wise, he'll take his games elsewhere. Of course MS probably knows this is a possibility and will pay an extraordinary amount of money to keep him on their side.

Wasn't that "most powerful hardware" stuff just a cover for "MS paid a bunch of money to get him on their side"? In which case, I'm sure we'll see him stick with MS, no matter what the hardware power. I'm sure now it'll be something like "the Xenon is the most effecient hardware for our team to use".

In the US, I believe it to be a very distinct possibility. The gap will definitely close a lot, even if they're not #1... at worst, I'd predict a 2:1 PS3 to Xbox2 owner ratio.

Elsewhere, it's probably a long shot. But it'll still improve a lot in other territories.

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Originally Posted by toby

The trend in the industry right now is better hardware and Nintendo and Sony will debut with more powerful hardware than MS.

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PS2 is markedly inferior to it's competitors and is way out ahead.

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Originally Posted by Interpol

They may have the support from several companies, but that doesn't mean a thing if the titles don't garner enough interest from consumers.

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Madden, Need for Speed, and Halo are the most interest-garnering franchises you could possibly have, barring GTA. Xbox2 will definitely have the former two and quite possibly have the latter one right around launch. For the PS3, the next GTA likely won't be ready for launch, and Madden 2006 and NFS will be old news by that time. Sony may have to come up with (or sign exclusively) a whole new IP if they want a real killer app near launch, really, and those take time to generate word of mouth. I just can't think of any really big franchises that will likely have a new installment ready, given their prior dev cycles.

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Originally Posted by Interpol

People will wait and flock toward the PS3 because it's a name that has been around longer and everyone knows has quality games on it

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If they were a year apart, I could see people waiting... 4-6 months, though, I dunno. Especially if, as I predict, the PS3 is not very noticably better graphically. I just don't see Sony going the Xbox route and making a supercharged, cost-ineffective console in relation to their competitor; Xbox did it as a foot in the door, whereas Sony already owns the door.

Developer confidence is high for Xbox2, and when the no-doubt great launch numbers start pouring in, that'll win even more to their side. I firmly believe a holiday launch will win against a non-holiday launch. Don't misread me, they'll both probably sell as many as they can make for months, but shortages of a hot holiday gift are going to see much more media coverage and therefore generate a lot of mindshare, and the Xbox brand is already very well known. Holidays also mean more game sales, and the probable higher tie-in ratio of games to systems will be a big point for publishers.

I say Xbox2 will get a port of most games that aren't signed exclusives to the other consoles, I mean, they get a ton now with 1/4 of the market share... stands to reason they'll get even more when running a closer race.

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Originally Posted by Geen

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that Xbox 2 is going to be the next Dreamcast and most third parties will probably turn their back on it when the PS3 hits the streets. For the sake of having competition, I hope that doesn't turn out true.

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They have big-name 3rd party games. They have enough money to put forth a successful and very widespread marketing campaign.They have consumer confidence. They have an uncontested holiday launch vs. a likely March-June one. They'll probably be only marginally outclassed technically. There is absolutely no way that Xbox2's gonna go the way of the DC, barring an outright catastrophic fumble.

The only way MS will become #1 next gen is if Sony fucks up big time somehow or Microsoft has some serious aces up their sleeve that they haven't played yet.

If MS were smart they'd delay games like Advent Rising, Jade Empire, Kameo, Pariah, and Conker as launch titles for the Xenon.

However, MS has XNA this time around which actually cuts development cost and time for game makers. Always a good thing.

They've also caught Squenix's attention because of XNA which can be nothing but benificial for MS's standing in Japan if Squenix decides to hop onboard.

Moreover, Sony has gotten arrogant because of their current worldwide standing. It would be very easy at this stage in the game for them to do something to piss off developers and gamers alike, but Sony hasn't gotten where they are by being idiots so I see that as unlikely.

Overall, I think MS won't take number one next-gen, but they will make life very uncomfortable for Sony.

Nintendo is a non-issue.

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Originally Posted by Geen

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that Xbox 2 is going to be the next Dreamcast and most third parties will probably turn their back on it when the PS3 hits the streets. For the sake of having competition, I hope that doesn't turn out true.

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Sega was the victim of its own incompetence and was coming off the disasterous Saturn fallout. Consumer confidence in Sega by that point was nil because they overreached themselves and tried to do too many things at once, basically confusing the consumer. Developers saw this and bailed at the first chance they got.

MS is not Sega. Barring a colossal fuck-up on MS part, Xenon is going nowhere but forward.

Microsoft got about 15% market share in their first go round. Going from 0 to 15 isnt bad. I can see them getting 25-35 next round but they wont get more than Sony. The only definite is that Nintendo's market share will continue to wither away like it has for the past 15 years. Especially if Revolution is stupid and gimmicky like the DS (which it will be).

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Originally Posted by Master of 7s

The only way MS will become #1 next gen is if Sony fucks up big time somehow

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The only way Sony could mess up is if the PS3's caught on fire during gameplay, and even then, some Sony loyalists will call this a 'cool feature'.

If by "really good chance" you mean greater than 5% but less than 10%, then I might agree. If Sony does something catostrophically stupid or Microsoft pulls an EA and starts buying exclusivity, then that chance may happen. Otherwise, Sony is a lock.

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Originally Posted by Mzo

I waited for the SNES over the Genesis, I waited for the N64 over the PS, and I waited for the GC over the PS2.

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Wow. You royally fucked up three times.

I think the greater debate is whether or not Nintendo will survive the next console generation. But, even then, it's not much of a debate because it's obvious they won't.

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Originally Posted by g0zen

I think the greater debate is whether or not Nintendo will survive the next console generation. But, even then, it's not much of a debate because it's obvious they won't.

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They'll be in it as long as they choose to be, because they are making money. MS may have a larger console market share, but Nintendo is killing them in profit margin. Kind of makes you re-evaluate what makes one a "winner".

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Originally Posted by g0zen

I think the greater debate is whether or not Nintendo will survive the next console generation. But, even then, it's not much of a debate because it's obvious they won't.

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I don't know, I think Nintendo is poised to have a pretty good year. Maybe they can carry that momentum into getting people to buy thier next console. I will be eager to see how Zelda sells this summer as a barometer of where Nintendo is at. If one of thier main franchises can't dominate in sales when it is going pretty much unchallenged ... then it bodes badly for the next gen.

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Originally Posted by Yoshi

They'll be in it as long as they choose to be, because they are making money. MS may have a larger console market share, but Nintendo is killing them in profit margin. Kind of makes you re-evaluate what makes one a "winner".

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True, but let's not forget the Microsoft makes billions off their Office line, so they can afford a weak profit margin from their Xbox division. On a smaller scale, Nintendo is still around from their weak Gamecube sales because of their GBA killings.

Nintendo's problem for me right now is that they keep making Zelda, which I have never liked, and Metroid games while not making proper Mario sequels. Why can I get Mario baseball but not a decent follow-up to Mario 64?

When your console can barely pump out 5 quality titles a year. You have a problem.

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Originally Posted by g0zen

When your console can barely pump out 5 quality titles a year. You have a problem.

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Agreed.

Halo 2 only counts as one, right?

Isn't mario 128 coming out? Hopefully it won't be stupid and gimmicky.

I'd settle for a graphical update of mario 64 with 100 new stars on the GC. The DS version = too crappy to play with the controls.

I doubt Mario 128 will ever come out for the GC, unless it's a swan song for the system. I'd love to see it though.

I think the N-Gage will be number one.

A WINNER IS NOKIA!

This generation will definatley be more balanced.

That being said though, probably not, unless Microsoft goes the EgAy route and just starts outright buying the parties they need away from Sony.

Why is it every time I see people talking about the next generation, its treated that the PS3 will be the most powerful system is a given?

This is Sony were talking about folks, we have yet to see shit from a real PS3 let alone whatever mock-up hardware they try to make us believe will be the ps3. Do we so quickly forget the little linux cluster they had running to "simulate" the eventual system which came no where near it? Don't remember the claims that the PS2's graphics were going to be so amazing it would lay waste to PC gaming? How about my favorite "Jack into the matrix" claims?

Then the product shipped, and what we got was a system that could barely outperform the dreamcast until coders really started coding to the metal nearly 3-4 years after its release?


The next round will be about games folks, no if ands or butts about it. Whatever console can swing GTA exclusivity, have a couple of good in-house exclusives, and as long as EA publishes games for it, will win teh war...

Yeah I just read that now, and have to agree with Wildkat here. Unless Sony by some miracle, releases A) a product that no longer stops working forever when you nudge it with you toe... and...B) A set of awesome custom designed hardware (yeah I know the PS2 could so some need tricks, but thats not my point what follows is, and its in CAPS) with a WELL DESIGNED MIDDLEWARE SOLUTION for developers that aren't Square and EA, and don't wanna spend 2 years learning how to recode in PS3 language.

Why does it even matter who makes the most $$ next generation (or any gen)?

Like I've said before, it doesn't matter who has the most powerful hardware. 3rd parties are still going to make the exact same game on all three systems just like they did in this gen. I HIGHLY doubt that the next gen of systems will be all the different graphically anyways.

i love xbox.

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Originally Posted by Yoshi

Agreed.

Halo 2 only counts as one, right?

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Only a half, actually, because only half the game (the multiplayer) lived up to the hype.

XB wins the marketing award for this console generation hands down, for using brilliant ad campaigns to hype games that turn out in most cases fairly medicore (ie, Fable).

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Originally Posted by Yoshi

They'll be in it as long as they choose to be, because they are making money. MS may have a larger console market share, but Nintendo is killing them in profit margin. Kind of makes you re-evaluate what makes one a "winner".

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I agree with this statement. I'm going to wait a year or two on this generation instead of the usual (buying the console apon release).

I'll just be playing Castlevania on the DS next year, can't afford a $300 console. :(

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Originally Posted by SearchManX

I'll just be playing Castlevania on the DS next year, can't afford a $300 console. :(

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Good thing you could afford your Super Gameboy Advance for $150 and the N64 games for $40 a piece.

6 months is plenty enough time to convince thrid parties to treat the Xenon as the next PS2. All they have to do is promise that it'll last just as long the as the PS2, which they can easily with their money, and have say a 4 million userbase head start. If the DC can do 3 before the PS2, the Xenon can easily do 4 with everyone backing them. With the DC it was just Namco/not even and Capcom.

Remember, the third parties decided which system is the next SNES, PSX, or PS2. I cnat see them losing a boatload of money waiting for the PS3. The market analysis wont say its gonna die like they did with the DC. They really should be good to go. The same thing happened to the N64. Way too late and too little.

I doubt I'm buying a console, but if I do, it will be Xbox 2 without question. Sony and Nintendo have killed my interest in console games, and Microsoft has done everything to make me happy.

I know I'm not the only person feeling this way about how awesome the Xbox has been.

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Originally Posted by omfgninjas

I doubt I'm buying a console, but if I do, it will be Xbox 2 without question.

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If the system doesn't have a killer app that I HAVE to play, I'm not buying it. I no longer care who makes the system.

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Originally Posted by omfgninjas

I know I'm not the only person feeling this way about how awesome the Xbox has been.

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IBTN

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Originally Posted by Cowdisease

If the system doesn't have a killer app that I HAVE to play, I'm not buying it. I no longer care who makes the system.

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Carrying over my Live account and giving me a kickass game to play online at launch would be enough for me.

I hope MS does well the next ge, mainly because I like the S-controller the most out of the current 1st party controllers.

Really though, I will most likely buy all the next gen systems. What I AM going to do different from now on, is rent/borrow more games. The days of owning huge libraries of games I will never play is over.

I'm a Mac guy and I hope that Microsoft wins.

Anyway, I owned all three current gen systems. I sold my Gamecube and mostly use my X-Box.

I think Xbox is awesome

For me personally, Xbox is by far the best console this gen, and XB2 already has its killer app that I must play: elder scrolls 4. My PS2 goes virtually untouched and I haven't seen anything to make me think the PS3 will be any different.

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Originally Posted by arjue

For me personally, Xbox is by far the best console this gen, and XB2 already has its killer app that I must play: elder scrolls 4. My PS2 goes virtually untouched and I haven't seen anything to make me think the PS3 will be any different.

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Elder Scrolls 4 is being developed for the PS3 as well.

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Originally Posted by Mzo

Carrying over my Live account and giving me a kickass game to play online at launch would be enough for me.

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Ditto.

I also think Xbox is the best console of this generation. IMO!

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Originally Posted by Captain Canuck

If the DC can do 3 before the PS2, the Xenon can easily do 4 with everyone backing them. With the DC it was just Namco/not even and Capcom.

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DC also had companies like Konami(Air Force Delta and Silent Scope), Midway(NFL Blitz, San Fransiso Rush 2049, Ready to Rumble and Hydro Thunder), Treasure (Bangai-o), Ubisoft ( Grandia II and Evolution) and Infogames ( Test Drive:LeMans, Super Magnetic Neo and Alone in the Dark: The New Nightmare).

I'd like to think it was more than just a couple of companies making good games for the system.

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Originally Posted by gamevet

Elder Scrolls 4 is being developed for the PS3 as well.

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whoops!

well, even still, theres the new perfect dark.

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Originally Posted by arjue

whoops!

well, even still, theres the new perfect dark.

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I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. Look how long it's taking for Conkers:Live and Uncut, to be released. Rare seems to be a lot like Working Designs, when it comes to getting a game out.

They will have Perfect Dark ready for launch. MS is going to force Rare to make a good game if they like it or not.

DOA4 and code cronos (something like that) is rumored to be ready for the Xbox2 launch as well

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Originally Posted by gamevet

Rare seems to be a lot like Working Designs, when it comes to getting a game out.

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Bullshit, RARE wrote the book on excessive game delays. In fact, it took them about 10 years to write the book.

I'm late to this party. First of , I'm loving XBoxes solid momentum here. Heck, I know plenty of people who have gotten rid of their PS2s to buy an XBox. One guy made his decision because he was ticked off his 1st gen system was a shoddily made piece of junk that started to poop out on him last year. The main reason is I'm a 2D shooter and platformer fan, and SCEA's blatant anti 2D policies boil my blood. Ever since MS quickly released Metal Slug 3 and welcomed SNK with open arms I have had a lot more respect for them.

Also, thanks goodness Nintendo got rid of Rare. It's like they went from a great second party to 2nd rate to a bunch of 3rd rate lazy idiots who were holding up the first party games I really wanted.

I will say this though, I bought a GC and Rogue Squadroneven though the system didn't launch with a Mario Adventure. That won't happen with Revolution. I hope Nintendo realizes I expect an epic Mario game launched with Revolution, I won't buy the system until it's available. Sunshine and Prime were well worth the wait IMHO but that waiting a year crap for AAA content with a mostly idle system aint gonna happen with me. I'll just stick it out with an XBox 2 and my other games.

In the US/UK/Canada, sure they have a good shot. Everywhere else though, no chance.

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Originally Posted by Kosh_H

The main reason is I'm a 2D shooter and platformer fan, and SCEA's blatant anti 2D policies boil my blood. Ever since MS quickly released Metal Slug 3 and welcomed SNK with open arms I have had a lot more respect for them.

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Eh, what? You're a 2D fan so you support the Xbox? Sony has made some stupid individual game decisions, but on the whole the PS2 has by far the best 2D (and 3D for that matter) lineup this generation.

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Originally Posted by jarrod

Everywhere else though, no chance.

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Everywhere else is irrelevant.

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Originally Posted by omfgninjas

Everywhere else is irrelevant.

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60% of the market is irrelevant?

"The main reason is I'm a 2D shooter and platformer fan"

Yep..that's why I'd get an Xbox. So I can have the platform with the fewest 2D shooters/platformers in history.

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Originally Posted by MarkRyan

60% of the market is irrelevant?

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Yes.