When you talk to Raymond after he's attacked, you get the quest Suspect: Declan Leuvaarden. Except I didn't, but following the Vizima Confidential quest still told me to talk to him, and I went through the whole quest and cleared his name and nothing happened and it was still telling me to talk to him. Turns out I didn't hit the little green button when I read the suspect list item he gave me. I loaded an old save and figured this out and then went back and re-read it and magically the next story event happens as soon as I read the paper even though I had already solved the quest the paper gives me.
Stupid. It wasn't an actual dead-end but it dead-ended the quest structure and there was nothing at all to help me figure out what I had done wrong. Lo and behold like 45 minutes later I visited a Shani at night THEN at day the other way around and somehow deadended the quest tracker again, but I don't think progress itself is stuck this time.

