2012 NFL Thread

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Originally Posted by Joust Williams

I don't know. I think the talent level is more even now and the players are simply better to the point where these average teams would look pretty good against the older teams. Yeah, seeing a super team with today's standards would be something to behold, but still, I like this better.

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It's hard to compare eras because of the increasing athleticism (read: performance enhancing drug use), but within an era, there have been nearly bullet proof teams in every decade except for the last two. And the 2000s Patriots are still better than anyone is going to be this decade, because the level of competition at the top continues to deteriorate.

edit: Another possible contributor is the pass happy, pinball machine garbage that passes for football today. Defenses get worn out because passing slows the clock down, which may turn what would have been a decent defense in other eras into a much worse one today.

Here's something else about parity. Granted, the Ws were home and the Ls were away games, so it's not like this isn't way out of the ordinary, but what kind of odds would I have gotten on Seattle beating GB and Dallas and losing to Arizona and St Louis in their first four games? I bet something like (1/4)^4

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Originally Posted by Joust Williams

Here's something else about parity. Granted, the Ws were home and the Ls were away games, so it's not like this isn't way out of the ordinary, but what kind of odds would I have gotten on Seattle beating GB and Dallas and losing to Arizona and St Louis in their first four games?

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Seattle may be a bad example, because they've had a very legit home field advantage since they moved to the new stadium. Plus, it took the replacement officials to get the "W" against Green Bay. But you are onto something. In today's NFL, there is money to be made by betting on the underdogs, because there really is no such thing in many of the match ups. If I bet on sports, and I have really actively avoided doing so, because I know I'd get hooked, I'd take almost every team who was a 7 point or more underdog, especially at home.

edit: Another thought is to ignore everything but who the head coach is in every game. I'd take a flower pot over Jason Garrett, so that methodology would have led me to pick Pete Carroll in that game. It would have fucked me against Coughlin though, because he's about 700x better than Garrett... at least every third year or so.

Eventually I am going to have to research this large spreads thing in detail where I would blindly pick the large home dog to cover. I am inclined not to do so because it would take a long time finding the old lines and also because I suspect it's too close to 50% (like Diff was saying to my CFB 40 pt spread question) to be interesting.

This week, there are 3 home dogs getting 6 or more:

• Colts +7 vs Packers
• Chiefs +6.5 vs Ravens
• Jets +8 vs Texans

It wouldn't surprise me if two of them covered, but I wouldn't take the Jets if they were getting 17.

If you also take large spread road dogs, you can add 3 more:

• Browns +8.5 at Giants
• Broncos +6.5 at Patriots
• Bills +9.5 at 49ers

I could be had on taking all of the dogs there. Let's see how I'd do taking those 5 (everyone but the Jets) this week hypothetically.

edit: Those spreads are from SBG Global and vary a little by site.

The only one I like at all is the Jets, ironically enough. There is no rational explanation. Progression to the mean?

Maybe the 9ers one because they don't score many points anyway. Unless they play the Jets.

I guess they have this year. Funny thing is when it's the start of the year, I just look at last season.

I think the mean for the Jets is 3-4 wins. So why not now.

Broncos are the best bet there easily.

Moving on from being worried about bounties for circumventing the cap, now the league is worried about injury reports because they screw up betting, even if their story once again is some other bullshit.

What the fuck? I get the Browns and Giants and nothing else at 1? Seriously? Who the fuck picked that game?