The game industry is dying

[Omni]

That's the thing. It'll take a nosedive to people like us, people who the article was aimed at, but not to Joe Gamer. Hence, not really a nosedive at all...

[Drewbacca]

Originally posted by Hero
I didn't imply that a nosedive would hurt

Well it was all dirty. Wouldn't it be cool, though? A nosedive means we could all say: HAVE A NICE TRIP! SEE YOU IN THE FALL!

Omni - You're right. But casual fans usually give up on a fad or popular item eventually, leaving a smaller market of hardcore and limited casuals in wake. So it could do this. It's not likely since the market always has new customers (the whole aging thing, y'know).

It could be good and bad. Sometimes a bear market hurts the smaller guys piggy-backing on the bigger guys success in the market economy. It's hard to predict..

[Klonoa]

Interesting topic. I don't think the gaming industry is dying but like Hero said, it could be taking a plunge.

This is probably a stupid question but what causes gamers to be jaded because there are millions of them out there(including me).

[Drewbacca]

Is that a riddle? I like riddles:

Um: Green.

[Klonoa]

Fuck, how did you know?

[MarsKitten]

Originally posted by OmniGear
That's the thing. It'll take a nosedive to people like us, people who the article was aimed at, but not to Joe Gamer. Hence, not really a nosedive at all...

I tend to think everything is cyclical that while games and genres we know and love are stagnating, others are getting thier hayday. Back in the SNES days most games were platformers on end, or shooters, a dime a dozen until inovation was something of a running gag. Then every so often we'd some new technology like the 3d chip to go and spice things up again.

I think currently the cycle favors large online games, Shadowbane, minemis online, dragon raja, hellbreath, Universal Century (basicly gundam universe online), not to mention the big 5, lineage, UO, AC, EQ and SIMS and while the concepts are only slightly divergent, we're getting entirely new concepts in gaming ideas, like play run towns and new ways of playing the old leveling treadmill. Also the whole WW2 run fps has been having, the Teamplay revolution.

May not seem like much but remember how revolutionary Final Fantasy 2(us) was in the rpg world?

Fighters and shooters what seems to be the group favorites here are in thier down cycles, but even then we're still got GGX2 and CvS2 online as well as Ikaruga and the upcomming Dodonpachi 3 (ps2, import, april 15 or 25th i forget)

Rpgs also seem to be enjoying a big revivial with the release of .hack, xenosaga, FFx-2, Zelda and others.

If you're looking for innovation, I think possibly at this current down time in the ecnomy world wide, you'll see refinement of ideas, ie morrowind rather than revolutions. Once things pick up a little and one of the consoles is roundly defeated you'll see a console based innovation pick up again.

But here's how i see the cycle. Revolution (spurred by technology, concepts, genres ect), expansion (countless knockoffs, sequels), consolidation (bad companies go under, good ones get bought up by the grandaddys), and refinement (the revolution is fine tuned and perfected, merged)
ie:
Revolution: Doom
Expansion: Rise of the Triad, Duke 3D, Doom2, Quake, Hexen, System Shock
consolidation: 3d realms drops off the face of the earth, ID devours development teams, Daikatana (lol), Quake 2

Refinement: Quake 3, Unreal Tourney and the evolutions of those.

I dunno i felt like a long post. The world will not end for gaming.

[Drewbacca]

Originally posted by Klonoa
Fuck, how did you know?

Some call it a gift, some a curse. I call it a keen intuition, a pack of bazooka joe and the ability to READ YOUR MIND!.

Seriously though, I have no clue as to the answer of your question, sorry.

[Diff-chan]

MarsKitten, you are missing the point. The point of the article was not so much stagnation (although that did touch upon it) - the point of the article was what is causing the stagnation. And that is the fact that publishers are dropping out left and right, games are skyrocketing in price (to develop), the powers that be (Nintendo/Sony/Microsoft) are , like Frogacuda said, selling their system at such a high price that they have to implement these stiff and restrictive licensing fees, and also the fact that no independent games can be put on the shelf because EB and GameStop are in bed with the videogame publishers.

These are the problems, not the normal cyclical game genres. Basically, he is saying, that the game industry's economics stink, and they are not a good foundation with which to base a huge rapidly growing industry. The economics do not support a lively, fresh, innovative group of hackers working on stuff they love and making some money on it. They support, huge faceless conglomerates releasing the same game over and over because that's the only safe bet.

When I said the game industry is "dying" that was my own word. Maybe its not dying per se... but the foundation its resting on is pretty shitty now and it threatens to undo the entire industry in the future. And its not really getting any better either - in fact, the situation is undoubtedly more pronounced now than it was in 1999 or whatever (pick a date). For an analogy, look at Japan - the country grew so fast in part due to the banks giving out shitty loans and not collecting, but it was such a bad foundation for growth that it all collapsed upon itself one day.

[Omni]

Originally posted by Andrew

Omni - You're right. But casual fans usually give up on a fad or popular item eventually, leaving a smaller market of hardcore and limited casuals in wake. So it could do this. It's not likely since the market always has new customers (the whole aging thing, y'know).

Exactly. So while the guys in their mid 20's are getting too cool for all this, a whole new batch comes in to replace them. But then again, games are catering to older and older audiences, and even the most macho of guys won't mind playing SOCOM or Halo, so I guess I see the gaming audience as a continually growing thing.

Of course, all that does jack for the little guy who wants to make something different, which is really the whole point of this.

[Drewbacca]

They can still do it, but without the fancy budget (counterstrike, anyone?)

Also, SOCOM and Halo are in the minority. Lets hope that changes.