The future of media.

[JefmcC]

In the comming week I need to come up with a short paper for a mass media course I'm taking. The topic is:

Predict what type of newspaper product, music medium, and version of television YOU will be using in ten years, and why.

I already have some notions of my own. Such as print newspapers no longer being relevent. To some extent, I already see this where I work. I predict that the print newspaper industry will continue to shrink and only a few major national papers will remain. Maybe not in ten years, but 20.

Music will continue to be downloaded. As soon as broad band is as saturated as cable TV (which it isn't even close too yet) the music industry will HAVE to change. Personally, I don't think the music industry (publishing) will even be able to change. Already, generations of kids are growing up without the concept of "paying" for their music. Downloading is the future. Or is it? Personal XM players may emmerge to provide a viable alternative.

What about the media on which we store music? So far, CD-R + MP3 is pretty dam good. Nomads and iPods with tiny hard drives currently offer the smallest way to carry the largest collection of music.

Television, to me is the wild card. Will the net become more TV like? Or will TV become more netlike? Will er ever see a set top box? I think Sony or MS will eventually, successfully merge PC, TV, net, games, ect.

For all these things, broadband/ internet2, will be what brings it to us. IMO.

So, where do you think we will be in ten years with reguards to mass media?

[negitoro]

I really don't think we'll still be using CDs and CD-Rs in 10 years time. I definitely don't think we'll still be using MP3s. Compression technology or high density storage mediums... one or the other will emerge soon enough... then we'll see 10TB solid state drives the size of a Smint package.

10 years is a long time. Think further ahead and grander visiosn. 10 years ago, we were still on 386s with 100MB hard drives, surfing primitive internet sites on a 28.8 modem.

In any case, I just think it's sad that we've got only generations of online pirates to come. There are plenty of people who still pay for their music. Don't count them out quite yet.

[Opaque]

little chips and huge screens... wave of the future!!!

[MechDeus]

We'll finally have the Dreamcast in a chip, and the PS2 will jack us into the Matrix.

Just think big, grand, PR plans.

[elBeardoAlwaysWins]

Radio Shack!!!!



"Keep it real dog"

-The Black judge on Americal Idol

[Hero]

Newspapers:

I don't see them being obsolete in 10 years. Or if they are or (heaven forbid) only a handful of big-name publications live, then those who can't afford PCs are seriously limited in their way of gathering day-to-day information. Remember, a buck (give or take) a day is cheaper than getting a $600+ computer just to read up on news.

Internet and PCs:

Technology will always get better. We've hit that processor hump, where going from 2 to 3 gig chips took longer than 1 - 2 gig did (or did it?). I doubt it'll matter though - already technology focus seems leaned more toward improving everything else, and offering high-capacity ways to store, transfer, and manipulate information.

As for the Internet...there will always be overbearing, opinionated people who know EVERYTHING (or like to believe so). I doubt that'll ever change.

Music:

I'll still buy my Cds. Just like I'll still hear music I never see in stores via mp3, which usually gets me interested in finding and buying said music. Guys at work call me a 'sucker' for having such notions.

TV:

Reality shows will be an embarrassing, hard to forget mistake. Set top boxes? I dunno...plenty of people my age, over it, and under it have a hard time managing channel-changing on a cable box. How would they adjust to a TV/recorder/internet/console/toaster all-in-wonder?

[JefmcC]

Originally posted by Hero
Newspapers:

I don't see them being obsolete in 10 years. Or if they are or (heaven forbid) only a handful of big-name publications live, then those who can't afford PCs are seriously limited in their way of gathering day-to-day information. Remember, a buck (give or take) a day is cheaper than getting a $600+ computer just to read up on news.

I don't see them going away in ten years either. 100 years? Maybe.

Music:

I'll still buy my Cds. Just like I'll still hear music I never see in stores via mp3, which usually gets me interested in finding and buying said music. Guys at work call me a 'sucker' for having such notions.

I think CDs will still be around too. How I get my music will depend on how I listen to it in my car. Right now, that's a CD changer. Within a year, it will be mp3 or some other compression format. Either through cdr or iPOD, or both most likely.

TV:

Reality shows will be an embarrassing, hard to forget mistake. Set top boxes? I dunno...plenty of people my age, over it, and under it have a hard time managing channel-changing on a cable box. How would they adjust to a TV/recorder/internet/console/toaster all-in-wonder?

I firmly believe the all in one box is the future. Do I like that? Not really, but I don't know how that all in one box will manifest itself. I think we'll need more than 10 years before anyone gets it right.

But sticking with 10 years, large screen displays will be the norm. I think once true HDTV gets here (which it isn't yet in any market in the US at all) we will have TV like it was in the Back to the Future movie. Other than that, I don't think there will be much of a difference in 10 years time compared to what we have now.

Keep the opinions comming.

[Wildkat]

The Internet will stay the internet, and TV will stay TV. It isnt going to merge like previously believed, they are different mediums, just like newspaper and tv and radio.

[TaiMaiShu]

TV is gonna be flooded with stupid reality shows and drama and the such. Everything else, probably won't change.

[Tracer]

My notion is a promising technology spawned from Xerox called Parc displays. Parc won't likely replace TVs since the likely hood of getting decent resolution on them is small, but they can replace newspapers and magazines as they are.

Instead of buying a bundle of paper like a magazine, a cheaply produced Parc board could be all the newspaper you need. You can electronically subscribe to the 'paper' and the data can be transmitted to the Parc board. They can be powered with a solar panel (like calulators) and can keep a picture for years without any power (not even solar - the energy source is needed only to send and recive data and to change the displayed data). The technology works like this: it's 2 thin platic pannels with very small colored plastic spheres in it that act as pixels. These spheres can be rotated to show a color (like a pixel) or no color. It's very simple and cost effective and could save millions of tons of paper a month with thier use. The technology within years can be so thin and cheap it could be used as easily and cheaply as consumer packageing (and this packageing could be animated) and it can currently display at near 640 x 480 resolutions. With more research they can be made to display more colors, made thiner and more fine. They can even eventually be made to replace laptop screens. But best of all they are so low power, cheap, and reuseable that they may realistically replace paper as a media.

http://www.parc.xerox.com/groups/dhl...paperdisplays/

Televisions are more complex. This requires a consensus from broadcasters and telecommunications companies and as an employee of one, I can attest that progress will be very very slow. HOWEVER - change can come from outside. Cable Television might forever be changed by the likes of Sony and Microsoft. As both are vying for the position of KING of the livingroom (Sony so far holds the crown for the video game console throne) and as time progresses mosr and more moves will be made to make their consumer products more consolidated and thier broadband ambitions may place them squarely against the likes of Time Warner and company who have stagnated the CATV industry for years. Products made for High Definition and 5.1 surround are goals of Sony and already attained by Microsoft, but TW has yet to fully adapt to that. And why would they when there's not really alot of money to be made to make the switch. Thier model is to slowly indroduce technologys when there are old but very widespread. Sony and MS are more aggressive. Time will tell if they decide that it is a logical route to make machines that not only entertain, connect to the web and record TV but also recive dynamic broadcasts from them or third parties.

Then there are displays - it all depends on proliferation so for now it looks like HD is becomeing the new standard. Honestly, VGA always seemed better to me, but the future of that is beyond me right now.

Logically, DVDs would be followed by something that satisfys customer demand. Most people are satisfied with the quality of DVDs and thier ease of use. While the ease of use might not improve, the durability and quality may. Also, the one common complaint on DVDs is that they do not record like VHS did. Thats a good reason why DVD/VHS players are somewhat popular. I belive the successor to DVDs will be as easy if not easier to use, larger in capacity, higher in quality of picture and sound and re-cordable in the same since that VHS was. DVDr is nice, but slow and cannot record broadcasts on the fly unless you have a very very nice and expensive one. Again, I belive Sony and perhaps Microsoft (who has been pursueing the TiVo idea for some time now) may deliver this. Likely Sony.

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