Is 2005 too soon for the next generation consoles?

[Cheebs]

Originally posted by Andrew
Instead of controller ports, smack on rechargers so you just place the controller, eh voila. (or something)

Proprietary rechargable batteries placed in anything make me nervous. Once they die, the doohicky they are powering dies with it (glares in GBA SP's direction). I love the Wavebird approach of using AA's. I know I'll be able to buy new AA's in 20 years, and they last for months before they need changing.

[spacecowboy]

Originally posted by Chibi Nappa
Proprietary rechargable batteries placed in anything make me nervous. Once they die, the doohicky they are powering dies with it (glares in GBA SP's direction). I love the Wavebird approach of using AA's. I know I'll be able to buy new AA's in 20 years, and they last for months before they need changing.

I agree. I was surprised at how responsive the Wavebird was when I got mine, since past attempts with wireless controllers left me frustrated with temporary lapses while playing. I also like how I can use AA's because I know I get them at any store for relatively little cost. Or you can go the rechargable route. Either way I think AA works best. The Wavebird is an example of how to do a wireless controller the right way.

SC

[Diff-chan]

Originally posted by spacecowboy
You make a good point, but I don't see Japan falling behind either the U.S. or Europe. Japan is the cornerstone of the gaming industry.

It is falling behind, though. Im not quite sure if the US game industry is larger than the Japanese one (it may be, I want to say it is, but I cant say for sure), but I do know that while the market is growing at a very quick pace here, its actually shrinking in Japan. Sales went down like 1.6% or something like that last year. So, yes, the Japanese market is falling behind the US one.

[spacecowboy]

Originally posted by diffusionx
It is falling behind, though. Im not quite sure if the US game industry is larger than the Japanese one (it may be, I want to say it is, but I cant say for sure), but I do know that while the market is growing at a very quick pace here, its actually shrinking in Japan. Sales went down like 1.6% or something like that last year. So, yes, the Japanese market is falling behind the US one.

Regardless of the numbers, I think that Japan will remain the bed of the video game industry so long as so many of the influential companies are stationed there. Maybe things will shift out of Japan somewhere down the road, but if it does, then I can only see the videogame industry beginning to deteriorate. So who knows. As of right now though, Japan is still a very valuable market, more so because so many of the companies are located there.

SC

[Jeremy]

Japan is still an important market in gaming, but it's not as important as it once was. Right now, a console maker can still be quite profitable without tons of Japanese support. Ten years ago, that idea was pretty much unthinkable. Thankfully, American developers and publishers have stepped up to the plate and created some fantastic games. This is great for the industry as a whole since it now doesn't have to rely on just one market for quality games.

[Drewbacca]

Originally posted by spacecowboy
I agree. I was surprised at how responsive the Wavebird was when I got mine, since past attempts with wireless controllers left me frustrated with temporary lapses while playing. I also like how I can use AA's because I know I get them at any store for relatively little cost. Or you can go the rechargable route. Either way I think AA works best. The Wavebird is an example of how to do a wireless controller the right way.

SC

Hmmm. So it's not as stable but there's definitely strides. If they could make it viable, it would be a hell of an upgrade and one more reason to buy a console.

But if it isn't going to be strong enough, like you guys suggested, then wires still have the one up.

[Opaque]

The PS2 is begining to show it's age, so I think a successor for it would be ok in 2005, but the XBOX and Game Cube could last a few years longer I think...

[Diff-chan]

SC: influence follows the numbers. IF the numbers shift, like they have been, then we will see a power shift in the industry.

I mean, look at it: in past generations, it was always Japanese games that had gamer's hearts and minds... and sales dollars. Mario. Zelda. Resident Evil. Castlevania. Now, its Grand Theft Auto 3. A Western game. While all the games I mentioned above have what, 1/10th of the influence they used to (they certainly have more than 1/10th of the sales, but...).

Numbers mean a lot. A lot lot lot lot. After all, Im studying mathematics.

[Melf]

Originally posted by Shin Johnpv
the N64 was in the lead untill FFVII came out bassicaly

N64 took something like 5 months to hit 1 million units sold which took the PSX something like 16 - 18 months and the Saturn almost 24 months

so it was doing well at the start and 5 months into its life it had more of the Japanese Market sold than the Xbox has now with what over a year out in Japan

thats the big difference, plus the N64 had Nintendo games backing it that always sold in droves

I think Nintendo had a plus on its side in the fact that they're a Japanese company. The Japanese are notorious for selling their products all over the world while shunning foreign product. Had it been the Nintendo Xbox, perhaps, things might have been different (of course there would have been Nntendo games to consider as well). Also, Nintendo has cash up the wazoo and can keep the system going practically by themselves if they need to, whereas...

see the one thing though is that in the US after what like a year and a half the DC had an installed user base of 4 - 5 million units

in Japan it had after being out for what 2 years a little over a million units sold

just having one market do really well cant always save you

...Sega had no cash whatsoever. Had they the money, they probably could have moved more systems in Japan. No one wanted a DC in Japan, even with Sega being a Japanese company. That goes to show that in today's market, the amount of cash you have doesn't guarantee success in Japan at all.

Personally, I think the whole Japanese market is highly overrated. Their xenophobia to foreign products pisses me off. As I said before, I wouldn't be surprised if their influence in the market drops greatly in the next 5 years.

[spacecowboy]

Originally posted by diffusionx
SC: influence follows the numbers. IF the numbers shift, like they have been, then we will see a power shift in the industry.

I mean, look at it: in past generations, it was always Japanese games that had gamer's hearts and minds... and sales dollars. Mario. Zelda. Resident Evil. Castlevania. Now, its Grand Theft Auto 3. A Western game. While all the games I mentioned above have what, 1/10th of the influence they used to (they certainly have more than 1/10th of the sales, but...).

Numbers mean a lot. A lot lot lot lot. After all, Im studying mathematics.

I see your point and it is viable. The same things has happened to many industries and I'm not saying your wrong and it won't happen to the Japanese. However, in my opinion, the game market will continue to stay rooted in Japan, at least for the near future. Japan is a strong market, but I think in your obsession with numbers, you may be overlooking other aspects that might factor in. Cultural and societal circumstances also play a big role. Melf mentions how the Japanese shun most foreign products. So it only makes sense that the XBox is doing poorly for that factor alone, even though it isn't the only factor. Japan is also in the middle of an economic slump, so when you see game sales are down, it is not necessarily attributed to declining interest in the Japanese market. Perhaps I'm giving the Japanese market too much credit, but as I see it, the credit is entirely warranted. They have the strongest companies, they have a devoted user base, and therefore, they have, in my opinion, the strongest market. The U.S. is becoming stronger, but I don't think video games in the U.S. are near where they are in Japan. I'm just saying that it's foolish to ignore the Japanese market, just as it would be foolish to ignore the American or European markets. But as we've seen from games that haven't been released over here, Japanese game companies don't always consider the American or European markets when making a game. The U.S. companies, like M$, do. I may been a little off on this, but it's how I see it and I think it's a fair view on the situation.

SC