Shattering the 5% Myth

**Calliander** · 02 Apr 2004, 04:05 PM

Shattering the five percent myth
17 09 02 | 12:00 AM (@292) | BY JACK CAMPBELL

Several nights ago I thought I would hit my favorite search engine and find out how many personal computers there are in the world. About two hours later I had to finally give up the search for the night, and just go to bed. It seems that innocent sounding question doesn't have a widely published answer.

I'm now glad that I invested the time to dig up the numbers, because the reality they reveal is pretty startling. And, after dozens of telephone calls and e-mails, and many more hours spent on the internet, all to find this one tiny pool of data, I finally pieced it all together.

Now the question begs, just why was this so important to me? The answer is simply that I keep reading manufacturer's numbers about their sales, analyst rants about the state of the industry, and media numbers about market shares, but without knowing the size of the market, I can't put the numbers into any reasonable perspective. If somebody sells 10,000 widgets this quarter, is that a lot of widgets, or just a few?

I don't care about widget sales, but sales of computer operating systems. Specifically, I am trying to get a handle on the evolving relationship between Microsoft's Windows XP and Apple's OS X... without any manufacturer's smoke clouding my vision.

The Tale Of Two Operating Systems

Everybody today knows that Microsoft Windows is the 600 pound gorilla of the personal computer operating system business. And, everybody knows that "Windows has 95% of the market.".

Before I get to some interesting revelations about the true condition of the Windows vs. OS X feud, let me just relate a few recent statements made in public by both camps. Just this past week, Microsoft has said that, "... more than 46 million copies of Windows XP have been sold through OEMs and retail outlets since the software's release in October 2001." Apple shipped the first release of OS X on March 24th, 2001. And, since that time, according to Apple's Phil Schiller, it is estimated that just over 3.0 million Mac users have adopted OS X as their primary operating system.

Frankly, without any sort of overall market size reference, these are both pretty impressive numbers, especially as the general ratio still seems to jibe with that ubiquitous 95/5 ratio we all believe exists.

The Operating System Numbers

Now, let's take a look at this simple set of numbers that took me somewhere around 30 hours of research to develop and to verify. Here are the approximate numbers of computers today in the world, by operating system and application: 520,000 AS400's, 210,000 mainframes, 3 million Unix servers, 9 million NT servers, 240 million Windows PC's, 32 million Macintosh PC's, and 3 million Linux PC's.

Now that we have some real numbers to work from, let's do some playful analysis. First, let's take a look at the percentage of all personal computers running Windows XP. Interestingly, of the 240 million total Windows based PC's in the world, only 46 million have been upgraded to XP; that's about 19% of the total Windows market running XP. If we include Mac and Linux systems in the market total, it brings the XP percentage down to only 16.7%. Now, I can see why Microsoft is a little touchy about XP sales. XP is an upgrade that is nearly 100% compatible with the previous version, so no software and few work habits must be abandoned for a user to move up to XP. Even so, adoption is still only at under 20%. Of the total Mac installed base of about 32 million units, at least 3 million have installed and are running OS X as their primary operating system. That's pushing the 10% penetration level that Phil Schiller mentioned at Seybold. Not bad for a new OS that requires that you scrap most of your older software and work habits. Even with that barrier to adoption, that 10% of Mac users has moved to the new platform. Not bad.

Despite the statistical novelty of those ideas, the real shocker in these numbers is here: Of the 275 million personal computers in the world today, 32 million of them run some version of the Mac OS. Folks, that's not 5%, like the urban legend has it; that's 11.6% of the worldwide personal computer market. And, it's certainly not the 3% or so recently published as the Mac's share of new computer sales.

So what?

So, more than 1 in 10 people who use personal computers in the world are already using a Mac operating system. The last time I checked, 5% did not equal 11.6%.

The Hardware Numbers

To cap off this interesting study, I'll now share one more group of estimates with you: the percentages of installed personal computers around the world, by manufacturer. These numbers are drawn a from about 20 different fragmentary sources, and have been compiled by me, to the point that I am confident in their general accuracy. Take a look.

11.6% Apple
10.4% Compaq
9.8% Dell
9.1% IBM
7.3% Hewlett-Packard
5.1% Sony
3.4% Toshiba
3.1% NEC
3.0% Packard-Bell
2.1% eMachines
1.7% Microstar
1.3% Fujitsu
32.1% Others (each less than 1%)

Yes, gentle readers, Apple has more installed personal computers in the world than any other individual computer brand. To phrase that idea in another, totally acceptable and accurate manner:

Macintosh is the number one computer in the world.

What does that fact do to the "Five Percent Myth?"

Word. Apple really does own you all.