Does anyone else think that Microsoft has a really good shot at becoming number 1?

[Jeremy]

Wasn't that "most powerful hardware" stuff just a cover for "MS paid a bunch of money to get him on their side"? In which case, I'm sure we'll see him stick with MS, no matter what the hardware power. I'm sure now it'll be something like "the Xenon is the most effecient hardware for our team to use".

[Bacon McShig]

In the US, I believe it to be a very distinct possibility. The gap will definitely close a lot, even if they're not #1... at worst, I'd predict a 2:1 PS3 to Xbox2 owner ratio.

Elsewhere, it's probably a long shot. But it'll still improve a lot in other territories.

The trend in the industry right now is better hardware and Nintendo and Sony will debut with more powerful hardware than MS.

PS2 is markedly inferior to it's competitors and is way out ahead.

They may have the support from several companies, but that doesn't mean a thing if the titles don't garner enough interest from consumers.

Madden, Need for Speed, and Halo are the most interest-garnering franchises you could possibly have, barring GTA. Xbox2 will definitely have the former two and quite possibly have the latter one right around launch. For the PS3, the next GTA likely won't be ready for launch, and Madden 2006 and NFS will be old news by that time. Sony may have to come up with (or sign exclusively) a whole new IP if they want a real killer app near launch, really, and those take time to generate word of mouth. I just can't think of any really big franchises that will likely have a new installment ready, given their prior dev cycles.

People will wait and flock toward the PS3 because it's a name that has been around longer and everyone knows has quality games on it

If they were a year apart, I could see people waiting... 4-6 months, though, I dunno. Especially if, as I predict, the PS3 is not very noticably better graphically. I just don't see Sony going the Xbox route and making a supercharged, cost-ineffective console in relation to their competitor; Xbox did it as a foot in the door, whereas Sony already owns the door.

Developer confidence is high for Xbox2, and when the no-doubt great launch numbers start pouring in, that'll win even more to their side. I firmly believe a holiday launch will win against a non-holiday launch. Don't misread me, they'll both probably sell as many as they can make for months, but shortages of a hot holiday gift are going to see much more media coverage and therefore generate a lot of mindshare, and the Xbox brand is already very well known. Holidays also mean more game sales, and the probable higher tie-in ratio of games to systems will be a big point for publishers.

I say Xbox2 will get a port of most games that aren't signed exclusives to the other consoles, I mean, they get a ton now with 1/4 of the market share... stands to reason they'll get even more when running a closer race.

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that Xbox 2 is going to be the next Dreamcast and most third parties will probably turn their back on it when the PS3 hits the streets. For the sake of having competition, I hope that doesn't turn out true.

They have big-name 3rd party games. They have enough money to put forth a successful and very widespread marketing campaign.They have consumer confidence. They have an uncontested holiday launch vs. a likely March-June one. They'll probably be only marginally outclassed technically. There is absolutely no way that Xbox2's gonna go the way of the DC, barring an outright catastrophic fumble.

[Master of 7s]

The only way MS will become #1 next gen is if Sony fucks up big time somehow or Microsoft has some serious aces up their sleeve that they haven't played yet.

If MS were smart they'd delay games like Advent Rising, Jade Empire, Kameo, Pariah, and Conker as launch titles for the Xenon.

However, MS has XNA this time around which actually cuts development cost and time for game makers. Always a good thing.

They've also caught Squenix's attention because of XNA which can be nothing but benificial for MS's standing in Japan if Squenix decides to hop onboard.

Moreover, Sony has gotten arrogant because of their current worldwide standing. It would be very easy at this stage in the game for them to do something to piss off developers and gamers alike, but Sony hasn't gotten where they are by being idiots so I see that as unlikely.

Overall, I think MS won't take number one next-gen, but they will make life very uncomfortable for Sony.

Nintendo is a non-issue.

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling that Xbox 2 is going to be the next Dreamcast and most third parties will probably turn their back on it when the PS3 hits the streets. For the sake of having competition, I hope that doesn't turn out true.

Sega was the victim of its own incompetence and was coming off the disasterous Saturn fallout. Consumer confidence in Sega by that point was nil because they overreached themselves and tried to do too many things at once, basically confusing the consumer. Developers saw this and bailed at the first chance they got.

MS is not Sega. Barring a colossal fuck-up on MS part, Xenon is going nowhere but forward.

[Diff-chan]

Microsoft got about 15% market share in their first go round. Going from 0 to 15 isnt bad. I can see them getting 25-35 next round but they wont get more than Sony. The only definite is that Nintendo's market share will continue to wither away like it has for the past 15 years. Especially if Revolution is stupid and gimmicky like the DS (which it will be).

[Cowdisease]

The only way MS will become #1 next gen is if Sony fucks up big time somehow

The only way Sony could mess up is if the PS3's caught on fire during gameplay, and even then, some Sony loyalists will call this a 'cool feature'.

[Yoshi]

If by "really good chance" you mean greater than 5% but less than 10%, then I might agree. If Sony does something catostrophically stupid or Microsoft pulls an EA and starts buying exclusivity, then that chance may happen. Otherwise, Sony is a lock.

I waited for the SNES over the Genesis, I waited for the N64 over the PS, and I waited for the GC over the PS2.

Wow. You royally fucked up three times.

[g0zen]

I think the greater debate is whether or not Nintendo will survive the next console generation. But, even then, it's not much of a debate because it's obvious they won't.

[Yoshi]

I think the greater debate is whether or not Nintendo will survive the next console generation. But, even then, it's not much of a debate because it's obvious they won't.

They'll be in it as long as they choose to be, because they are making money. MS may have a larger console market share, but Nintendo is killing them in profit margin. Kind of makes you re-evaluate what makes one a "winner".

[toxic]

I think the greater debate is whether or not Nintendo will survive the next console generation. But, even then, it's not much of a debate because it's obvious they won't.

I don't know, I think Nintendo is poised to have a pretty good year. Maybe they can carry that momentum into getting people to buy thier next console. I will be eager to see how Zelda sells this summer as a barometer of where Nintendo is at. If one of thier main franchises can't dominate in sales when it is going pretty much unchallenged ... then it bodes badly for the next gen.

[Cowdisease]

They'll be in it as long as they choose to be, because they are making money. MS may have a larger console market share, but Nintendo is killing them in profit margin. Kind of makes you re-evaluate what makes one a "winner".

True, but let's not forget the Microsoft makes billions off their Office line, so they can afford a weak profit margin from their Xbox division. On a smaller scale, Nintendo is still around from their weak Gamecube sales because of their GBA killings.