Official PlayStation 4 Thread

[GohanX]

The way these systems launch and then disappear from the shelves for N weeks with zero updates while potential buyers sit and wait and eBay scalpers feast is just embarrassing. I find it tough to believe that hardware makers are still cool with this. It's not 1996 anymore.

Yes, but if you could find systems on the shelf shortly after release many would consider the launch a failure no matter how many actually sold. They're kinda fucked either way.

[Diff-chan]

I don't think we'll see that with the PS4. I was reading an interview with one of the Sony execs where he was talking about balancing enough stock to control demand with too much where it has the illusion of not being popular.

We're seeing that already.

The "illusion of not being popular" is bogus. Either something is popular or it's not. You don't invent demand by limiting supply. I could easily buy a Xbox 360 for many years, doesn't mean it wasn't the best selling system on the market.

Yes, but if you could find systems on the shelf shortly after release many would consider the launch a failure no matter how many actually sold. They're kinda fucked either way.

Nope, it doesn't work like that. A system is popular if it sells. A system you can't buy isn't selling.

[Yoshi]

It's been out a week. How often do PS3 and 360 consoles get restocked normally?

I also disagree with you on the marketing angle. You and I are not them, but there are lots of people out there who are bandwagon jumpers and want to have "the next big thing" or a "rare item." To those idiots, going into a store and seeing a dozen PS4s reduces their desire to own one. I've never had access to data to see how prevalent that mentality is, but I'd be surprised if it weren't significant. And the people like us are going to buy one sooner or later either way, assuming we wanted one in the first place, so there's low risk of alienating the informed while taking advantage of the boobs.

[Yoshi]

Nope, it doesn't work like that. A system is popular if it sells. A system you can't buy isn't selling.

Popularity isn't measured just by lifetime-to-date sales. It's measured by buzz and the resulting potential future sales, especially now that you can quantitatively capture that in social media. If losing X% of sales this month creates Y% more sales in two months, and Y > X, it's the right thing to do.

edit: Perceived rarity also drives impulse purchases, because people feel like if they leave that last PS4 on the shelf, it may be a long time before they get the chance again. The Wii benefitted greatly from that for example, despite the fact there was nothing to play on it for a long time.

[Diff-chan]

I also disagree with you on the marketing angle. You and I are not them, but there are lots of people out there who are bandwagon jumpers and want to have "the next big thing" or a "rare item." To those idiots, going into a store and seeing a dozen PS4s reduces their desire to own one. I've never had access to data to see how prevalent that mentality is, but I'd be surprised if it weren't significant.

I don't think there are many people like that. I think the vast majority of people wait until the thing comes out, read the reviews, played it at their friends' house, asked for it for Christmas, etc. Now they want a system they can't find.

If the system is popular it is popular if there is 1 PS4 on the shelf or 100. The best solution is to release the 100 and adjust from there.

Not to mention the scalper angle, every cent over MSRP given to Craigslist guy is a cent not spent on games, accessories, etc.

[Joust Williams]

They also manufactured a ton of Wiis.

[Diff-chan]

If losing X% of sales this month creates Y% more sales in two months, and Y > X, it's the right thing to do.

I really don't think they can capture this. People who want the system in 2 months will buy it in 2 months. People who want to buy the system now should be able to buy it now.

edit: Perceived rarity also drives impulse purchases, because people feel like if they leave that last PS4 on the shelf, it may be a long time before they get the chance again. The Wii benefitted greatly from that for example, despite the fact there was nothing to play on it for a long time.

No, see, the Wii was genuinely a really popular system. You may think that there was "nothing to play on it", but people were buying it for Wii Sports. Nintendo couldn't make enough of them, and they suffered greatly for it. They probably lost hundreds of thousands if not millions of sales because of supply constraints. There is zero doubt in my mind that Nintendo wishes they could go back and punch out more systems to match demand.

[Diff-chan]

Look at it this way: why not just release it in July? They release it during Christmas because that's when they know the most people will be buying games and stuff. So they release it at this time when there are all these people looking for stuff to buy and they can't buy it. It's insane.

[Yoshi]

I don't think there are many people like that. I think the vast majority of people wait until the thing comes out, read the reviews, played it at their friends' house, asked for it for Christmas, etc. Now they want a system they can't find.

Just so we're clear, you think the vast majority of people are informed consumers?

If the system is popular it is popular if there is 1 PS4 on the shelf or 100. The best solution is to release the 100 and adjust from there.

Popular isn't binary. A product perceived as exclusive is going to be more popular than one that is not. It's one of the reasons Apple can overcharge for everything they make. Sony can't use the strategy long-term the way Apple does, but they can take advantage of it from a supply standpoint short-term.

Not to mention the scalper angle, every cent over MSRP given to Craigslist guy is a cent not spent on games, accessories, etc.

That's an interesting point, but I am not sure it holds water in practice. Most people are probably going to buy exactly one game. They can't buy less than that realistically. Maybe they don't buy a second controller, but with the focus on online play, especially for early adopters, I am not sure how many people are buying extras yet anyway.

[Diff-chan]

Popular isn't binary. A product perceived as exclusive is going to be more popular than one that is not. It's one of the reasons Apple can overcharge for everything they make. Sony can't use the strategy long-term the way Apple does, but they can take advantage of it from a supply standpoint short-term.

Apple doesn't overcharge for anything. They charge exactly what the market will bear.

Besides, Apple products aren't popular because they are supply constrained. They are popular because people want to buy them. That's my whole point. If a lot of people want to buy a PS4 and can afford to buy a PS4, then it is a popular system and Sony should get a system to each and every one of those people. If not, they are losing money on the table.