Official Thread of Michael Pachter Predictions

[Yoshi]

This is probably long overdue but better late than never.

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter spoke at the Game Monetization USA Summit in San Francisco, and once again made some bold predictions about the future of the game industry. He pulled no punches as he evaluated the current state of affairs in the business, and he had some hard advice for a number of companies.

Pachter noted that more people are playing games on more devices than ever before, but he doesn't think the console market will be growing. "I don't think you're ever going to see 500 million consoles out there," Pachter said. For lifetime sales, Pachter expects the Wii U will ultimately sell 30 million "or fewer" units, the PS4 will sell 100 to 120 million units, and the Xbox One will sell 90 to 110 million units.

"The reason Sony beats Microsoft is solely the price," Pachter noted. "Microsoft loses the next generation unless they cut price. If Microsoft drops its price to $399, I expect the sales to be equal to the PS4."

The lifetime sales Pachter predicts compare to current sales of the PS3 and the Xbox 360 at about 80 million units apiece, but it's far below some estimates of hundreds of millions of next-gen consoles. "I don't know where they get those numbers," Pachter said. He feels that at several hundred dollars, with games costing $60 or more, consoles are just too pricey to ever sell hundreds of millions of units.

The Wii U's performance so far Pachter characterized as "underwhelming," but noted it's possible "but unlikely" that exciting new titles will reinvigorate growth. He believes that Nintendo is missing a huge opportunity to bring new gamers into their brands: Nintendo should put old GameBoy Advance content on phones and tablets for free, and charge $3 to $5 for more recent titles from the DS. Pachter feels this would generate enormous revenue for Nintendo and bring millions of new fans into their brands, and give them a strong way to sell newer titles on the 3DS and Wii U that use those brands.

"I don't know why Iwata is still employed," Pachter said, given that he refuses to take advantage of this opportunity while the handheld market continues to shrink and the Wii U has failed so far to catch on in a big way.

Pachter is more positive on the PlayStation 4 - "Sony thrives, Nintendo doesn't" - saying it's impressive as a game playing device. "The graphics are phenomenal, and the huge RAM makes future innovation likely," Pachter pointed out. He noted that the multimedia features remain unclear, but the CPU power of the PS4 allows the potential for huge improvement in the future. As for the Xbox One, Pachter noted it's impressive as a multimedia device, and the added features of Kinect and Skype give it additional value. "We're sticking with our prediction of a built-in TV tuner" for the Xbox One, Pachter said, which would simplify the ability of the Xbox One to control your television viewing.

"The next generation of consoles is probably the last," Pachter said. "We expect frequent model updates instead of new consoles." Moreover, there's going to be renewed interest in the PC, he predicted. "I think the PC is going to make a comeback, the PC will be the hub of all this stuff," he stated. He feels Smart TVs are a dumb idea, noting that you don't have a smart monitor connected to your computer. He envisions there will be a number of screens around the home, perhaps controlled by a tablet, being driven by a supercomputer in your pocket that we call a smartphone.

Link

Clairvoyant or Nostradumbass?

[EvilMog]

Interesting points. Nintendo really should branch out. Not selling games on Android and Apple stores is beyond stupid.

[Will]

I think he has good points about a lot of this stuff.

Not sure about the next gen being the last but given how indies are going mostly multi-platform along with the AAA games it wouldn't be surprising either. Having to buy multiple consoles is never really the desired way to be able to play all of the exclusive stuff but it's been a necessary thing for a while now so maybe one day Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft will just offer games services through the PC or something.

I also agree about the Nintendo portion, they really should offer their games on other non Nintendo platforms to be able to make more off of them and have them more widely available but they've been stubborn about keeping their games so proprietary.

[Joust Williams]

I love Pachter, he trolls the hell out of people

[Changeling]

This isn't GAF, Dino.

[Finch]

Well, he's either right or he's not, but i don't see why people put so much stock in Pachter Words, or why he's employed for whoever he's employed with for making up the same shit that any dumbass on NeoGaf could be quoted on every other thread.

It's nice to think Nintendo has some integrity, look at SE and Capcom, they're so fucking gross now, but even if you don't care about that, is it guaranteeing any kind of success? You can get whatever emulator you want on Android, and aside from that, people are satisfied with really shallow, clumsy gaming experiences because they're "good enough".
After that, how many mobile games are huge successes? (this is not a rhetorical question, i don't know) Everyone quotes Angry Birds, Puzzles and Dragons for Japan, but outside of those successes, are companies and individuals actually having tremendous success with these games? Are any of the big companies like Capcom, SE, or Sega really pulling in a lot from mobile sales? It seems like they keep doing it just because it's a cheap cash-in. I'm sure enough idiots and people too bored to bother with anything else are paying for a chance to get a new card in whatever games, but does that last forever? Or does everyone finally wake up like i did after getting fucking bored and disgusted after being pretty obsessed with whatever Facebook game that was? Dragon... something.

And seriously, unless it was developed for a mobile device, playing them on a mobile device would really blow. If you want to get into the attachable gamepad solution, fine, but you're either giving up form factor or you have just another thing that's going to get lost. This is a problem with people thinking a game on a mobile device is "good enough" to sacrifice quality and input.

All that said, it might be interesting to see Nintendo release a game or three, developed exclusively for mobile, just to test to water, maybe to compliment an existing product. Even then i think it would cause enough question of their already successful product (3DS) that it might not be a risk they want to take.

[Finch]

also i was just talking today about how the only time i read anything about Michael Pachter is when he's predicting the failure of Nintendo and asking why Iwata hasn't been fired, but i guess occasionally he'll say something about Sony to show an example of a company that isn't Nintendo

[Low]

Have nothing to say on the Wii U but the 3DS has consistently been the top selling hardware (worldwide) for 2013. Nintendo's own brands continue to rack cash and yet Pachter demands the GBA catalog as a iOS/ Android freebie. Trolling indeed.

[James]

He'd be right if all a company wants is a whole lot of money, but there's a lot of easier ways to make money than video games. Money is unquestionably the driving force, but obviously Nintendo would be doing other things if it was the only force that pushed them forward. Nintendo is cyclical, though. They'll be back, although probably never to the sales numbers of the Wii.

James

[Diff-chan]

The thing people don't seem to understand is that Michael Pachter is not some fag like Jim Sterling trolling for hits. People actually pay big money for his analysis to then turn it into investments - if he sucked at it he would be gone long ago. What he is saying seems perfectly reasonable based on the current state. Things can change but that's just the way things work.

He'd be right if all a company wants is a whole lot of money, but there's a lot of easier ways to make money than video games. Money is unquestionably the driving force, but obviously Nintendo would be doing other things if it was the only force that pushed them forward. Nintendo is cyclical, though. s

This doesn't make any sense. The video game industry is large ($70B+ worldwide) and growing at a rapid clip. The problem isn't that money-making is hard in the game biz, it's that Nintendo is clueless. The reason why people think Nintendo should dabble with phones and tablets is because the future is phones and tablets. It's not in ugly plastic underpowered handheld consoles. Sure there is money to be made in that segment today but if Nintendo wants to be around in 30 or 50 years they need to think about more than today. This goes for the Wii U too. The problem is the Wii U is a giant hunk of shit. If Nintendo released a system that wasn't a hunk of shit and was actually something people want to buy then they would be successful.