The Trump Presidency

[Diff-chan]

The fact of the matter is that the prevailing trends around previous minimum wage hikes have never bore out the sky-will-fall predictions that coalesced around them; There may not be the bountiful growth libs forecast, but the overwhelming fallout is that things get a little better or stay about even. It's when wages are left to fall behind for extended periods that we see spending and markets start to shrivel.

We can't examine a separate universe where the wage increase was not enacted, so it's impossible to say. I will say that prior increases were not as much as fast as the ones proposed now. People have done studies and found that the minimum wage DOES have an effect on employment when it hits around 50% of median. The median wage in this country is about $25 so we are getting above that number, so I don't feel too good about these $15 min. wage rates. And I think these things are being poorly implemented on a state level. NY is mandating $15 an hour, ok NYC can handle it but can Rochester or Buffalo? Probably not and those places are depressed now. Also, another big factor is automation. McDonald's can replace workers with screens. They just can, and they say they won't, but come on. We all know they will. McDonald's is also far more able to buy expensive touch screen equipment than the local falafel place down the street.

I remember being at a restaurant in Belgium, which is a place of high labor costs. The restaurant was pretty busy and they had all of one waiter tending to all the tables. The guy was running around like a crazy person - far, far busier and more frantic than I have ever seen a waiter work in the US. It was really incredible. In the US this restaurant would have ben staffed by at least 3 or 4 waiters if not more. So, that one guy might be better off but the minimum wage doesn't benefit the people they don't hire.

[Calliander]

A lot more has degraded between The Greatest Generation and the Millennials than future shock.

Well yeah, the boomers fucked everything up in the middle there.

NIMBYs are in every generation and they're the ones who fuck everything up. That mindset springs from a lack of education, fear of the unknown, and apathy. (I believe someone brought up the apathy portion already.)

I'm entirely confident that if a study were done, it'd be found that filthy small-business-hating liberals support local retailers and products a fair margin more than America First types.

This is one of those "man, I know my experience is anecdotal but still" kind of things where your personal sample size is quite large but still not enough to satisfy empirical demand: All of the conservatives I know (IRL) talk big game about small businesses in one turn then complain about the service at McDonald's and Wal-Mart in another. It's eerie how uniform my experience is in that regard. And they'll explain it away with stuff about franchises, but franchises are still the big name versus the small name.

That said:

The economics don't work for small businesses in rural areas

...

Their competition, especially of the mom and pop variety, gets nailed, while they lay people off and increase their profits.

This is the part that really blows for multiple frustrating reasons - most of all, how does a mom and pop out-advertise/out-sell/out-maneuver a chain in today's world?

[Dolemite]

McDonald's can replace workers with screens. They just can, and they say they won't, but come on. We all know they will.

They have.

[Drewbacca]

Misleading. They still have regular old tellers to go to as well and the kitchen staff are as plentiful as ever. I prefer the robot tbh. It's faster and I don't have to talk to anyone. I can also peruse the menu without holding things up too much.

[Fe 26]

can we talk about this?

small businesses in rural areas, especially when they're crippled by outrageous corporate tax rates

On what planet are most small businesses corporated?

[FuryFox]

No, of course not. People just ignore facts, research, or well-defended arguments that offer information counter to their core beliefs.

[kedawa]

I'm all for making businesses pay a living wage, but I don't know if it will have the kind of effect on consumer spending that the optimists are predicting. People have so much debt that paying that off will take precedence for anyone with an ounce of sense.

There are a lot of small businesses that won't be affected at all because they're run entirely by one family. It's not like the owners of the korean corner store have to give their kids more money.

[Dolemite]

Misleading.

Your mom is misleading.

[Calliander]

I prefer the robot tbh. It's faster and I don't have to talk to anyone.

Some comedian I saw - heavyset dude - mentioned that he doesn't support the robots because the shame of ordering from a human being was the only thing keeping him from ordering the entire menu.

On what planet are most small businesses corporated?

You know what he meant, smartass. I don't know if he used the wrong terminology or we are not as informed about this stuff but the people I know who own small businesses are definitely at a disadvantage in the taxes area.

People have so much debt that paying that off will take precedence for anyone with an ounce of sense.

So, not Americans.

The problem with the optimism you speak of is that we don't have fiscal sense. So we'll take whatever tax breaks we have and spend it on crap we don't really need, and we'll feel wealthier so we'll rack up even more debt because we think we can shoulder it.

It's a temporary boost to consumer spending either way, probably. And I'm an optimist.

[GohanX]

Some comedian I saw - heavyset dude - mentioned that he doesn't support the robots because the shame of ordering from a human being was the only thing keeping him from ordering the entire menu.

I've been guilty of this at Sheetz. On the other hand, sometimes it's funny to see the reaction of the worker. Yes, I would like a Big Mac and a fish sandwich because AMERICA FUCK YEAH!

The problem with the optimism you speak of is that we don't have fiscal sense. So we'll take whatever tax breaks we have and spend it on crap we don't really need, and we'll feel wealthier so we'll rack up even more debt because we think we can shoulder it.

It's a temporary boost to consumer spending either way, probably. And I'm an optimist.

This is the goddamn truth.