He's leaning hard into a base strategy because it's the only one he has left. He has destroyed any kind of populist coalition he might have once had so he is hoping white racists and fox grandpas scared of the culture war are going to save him with their enthusiasm.
It is desperate but it's also a bad strategy. Not only is Trump's base not big enough to get him over, but they don't need much rallying as they're already loyal.
Trump won the last one on an EC advantage, and I think he, like a lot of people, think the EC just favors the right, but it doesn't and that advantage seems to be evaporating as educated middle class whites flee from Trump.
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