Ranch Economics Test

[Etymology00]

I've been intrigued by various comments about using ranches.  In particular, I've read (but not really understood) suggestions that ranches be started as cattle ranches, but switched to goats at some point.  At least one commentator even suggested switching BACK to cattle at some later stage.  I thought some research on the economics of this might be useful, so I designed a test bed containing 4 ranches.  I've observed (and even read in this forum, I think) that 7 "G" squares out from the ranch building is the maximum (or at least the optimum) range for cattle browsing.  So I gave each of the ranches 7 clear squares in all directions, and put in 2 fully staffed teamster offices and docks, one pair to serve each pair of ranches (1 cattle + 1 goat ranch).  I let the game run for 20 years, and saved it every Jan 1.  I did not switch from cattle to goats; I just let 'em go.  As time allows (and if the readers show any interest in this experiment), I plan to set up some other test runs to see the effects of switching herd types.
I just completed this exercise within the past 20 minutes, so I don't pretend to have plumbed the depths of the data yet (even with all the time in the world, my knowledge level in interpreting such statistics is essentially zero, and my math skills ain't none too advanced, neither).  At first blush, it seems to me that there MAY be a slight advantage (greater profit) from using goats in the 1st 5 years. although this is by no means certain (see the one cattle farm that kept pace with the best of the goat farms right from the start).  It does seem clear, though, that over the long haul (unquestionably after the 8th year), cattle stomps all over the goats for profit.  Admittedly, the test might be criticized as creating ideal conditions for a cattle ranch, but the goats got the same advantages.
Attached (if I can make it work) is a zip file containing a spread sheet (Excel) and chart of the data.  I've also made a zip of all 20 saved games which probably won't fit the limits of the forum (so I'll play around with it and try sending it later).  If I can't, or if you'd like them right away, email me with your address and I'll send them over.  I hope these are of use to anyone interested in the economics of ranching.  I'd also be very interested to hear from Egg and other regular authors on this subject to see how this data fits with your current theory of ranching.  Regards to all, ET

[timp999]

Et,

Good research! I often use Excel sheets when I'm curious about something in the game.

The point of Egg's ranching strategy is the rapid switch of product from cattle to goat. This causes the ranchers to harvest the breeder cattle, which produce 7 units of beef each, at $1,000/unit, which yields $14,000 per ranch. It's basically a "middleman" economic strategy, where you buy two cows for $500 and then slaughter and sell them for $14,000 right away instead of breeding them.

Once the cows have been killed, leaving 2 goats, switching back to cattle will buy 2 more cows, and you can then repeat the process.

Be careful using this strategy, it may very well spoil the game for you, as it removes most of the economic challenge. (That's not to say it's not a great strat, Egg.)

[Etymology00]

Hey Tim -- thanks for explaining this to me.  I CAN be a bit dense at times!  Attached is a 2nd test, where I took readings every 6 months -- the cows didn't get off to a fast start in this one, but were moo-ving right along after 6 years.  Now that I know the point of Egg's strategy, I'm looking forward to testing it.  Regards, ET.

[Etymology00]

Hi Thing -- I didn't use smokehouses on any of the farms to keep things simple.  It's true the land showed a deeper green for cattle, but it was still all green for goats.  I wouldn't mind running some tests on land that's better for goats than cattle, but don't know how to set it up (paint? fill?  using which boxes? -- any suggestions?)  BTW, here's a zip of the test map for any who are intrested.  Keep those comments coming!  ET

[Superdude]

Hi Everyone;

I think you should take some other variables in count:

-When people step on grass it loses quality.

-The skill of cows/goats makes some diference, it sounds dumb i know...

-The skill of the ranchers

-The wheather patterns : more rain, better grass

-The bigger the herd is, the faster the grass will be finished up, the necesity of the cows to move more in search of grass, taking up their rest counter, making them lazier and slower.

-There was a little problem with the breeding pair in the beggining (your test map ranch 300) A cattle ranch started with 2 goats and 2 cows.. Eh??? and the same way with a goat ranch (west top and bottom ranches)

-Thanks for your time.

-sd

[Egg]

  Finally.... some opposition. Ahh I've longed for the day for another smart player who is really interested in the economics of the game to come by... well seems like we have one... Welcome EY

 Timp: I think they should make a patch for the goat and cow buy/sell trick... its more of a cheat.....but not to say that it isn't a good strategy

[timp999]

 Timp: I think they should make a patch for the goat and cow buy/sell trick... its more of a cheat.....but not to say that it isn't a good strategy

Egg, I don't think it's a cheat... It's a perfectly legit economic strategy to buy cows and then slaughter them rather than breeding them, and just the sort of thing a tinpot dictator would do! unfortunately, it does tend to make things a bit too easy...

[Etymology00]

-The skill of the ranchers

-The wheather patterns : more rain, better grass

***

-There was a little problem with the breeding pair in the beggining (your test map ranch 300) A cattle ranch started with 2 goats and 2 cows.. Eh??? and the same way with a goat ranch (west top and bottom ranches)

This occurred because the map was created from test 303, where the NW ranch was converted from cattle to goats and the NE ranch from goats to cattle prior to starting the game (a preliminary test of Egg's strategy).  A revised RanchTest 300 map (with no herd switching) and some notes on the map's design features and limitations is attached.

As for the experience and rain factors, all 4 ranches were fully staffed prior to game start with "semi-skilled" new farmers from the editor, so experience levels should be equally good/bad among the ranches.  During tests 301 and 302, I did notice that the northern farms got less rain than the souhern ones, but I don't think it invalidates the results since 1 cattle and 1 goat farm lay on each side of the "rain line."

I really DO appreciate your feedback, however, and I welcome any further observations, suggestions and ideas for refining the map or the test conditions.  I'ts gratifying to see this research generating some interest, so don't hesitate to tell me what you think.
Regards, ET

[Etymology00]

Did you try to pick the best land for the ranches in your test?

Actually, I tried to build the entire map as ideal breeding ground for cattle.  It worked out pretty well, but the "weather shore" (NE side) did seem to degrade once the map was loaded -- I suspect you're right about the weather effects.  Still, the info mode shows virtually all squares as deep or bright green for both cattle and goats, so I think the test objective of creating (mostly) equal conditions among all 4 ranches was essentially accomplished.   At least, that's as equal as I can make them (see the map and notes on the design factors zipped to the previous post).  Of course, if you have some ideas how I could equalize it further, I'd be happy to try them out.  Thanks for your input.  ET

[Superdude]

Hi, i just noticed something a bit strange; tell me if i am mistaken:

Goat quality seems to improve in higher altitudes, and cattle in lower altitudes:

and Etymology thanks for replying, i was begining to think that you were ignoring me...

Also... the skill of the ranchers vary with the intelligence factor: but MOST of these small variables are not worth much, they dont make much diference (small number of pesos)

-sd

pd. we should ask for a map editor with a feature for wheather patterns.. actually i might even begin an investigation about them!!!

[timp999]

Goats just do well on high terrain, just as IRL.

To see the weather patterns, just look at the soil wetness bands and the average soil wetness. You can also script additional rain into a scenario by adding to the cloud rate.

[Etymology00]

SD - LOL!!  Predicting the weather?!  Now THAT's some research I'd like to see (too timid to try it, myself, though)

I'll be running some more tests this weekend, so if you have any suggestions (or requests), let me know.

Regards, ET

[Etymology00]

I think/guess the weather change over time is fairly standard

I'd guess you're right, Thing.  I'm not attempting to keep track of this in any systematic way, but I've started watching the avg. rainfall overlay while time is running on the current tests.  I'll add a note about any trends I see to the spreadsheets when I tally up the results.

[Superdude]

Hi,

I've officially started my research on wheather in tropico.

The cloud rate seems insteresting,

There might even be some sort of winds and stuff

A base for hurricaines may even be posted...!

Maybe pollution has changes in the wheather.

stay tuned---


-sd

pd, soon i'll start on channel 5 with a big satelite pic of tropico as a background telling you to take a rain coat or to take the next plane somewhere else...lol

[Egg]

   I don't really reccomend ranches in the first place.....If you go back to my,"Rich Presidente, Poor Presidente" thread, i've just finished research on manufacturing industry.... all these raw material gathering isn't really worth it though.... I'm gonna continue posting there about how to get started... (more refined this time) hopefull not too much of beating around the bush

[Etymology00]

Test results 303 series:
I ran a series of 4 tests, each lasting 5 years.  One ranch switched from cattle to goats, one from goats to cattle, one stayed with cattle and one stayed with goats.  All switching was done before the game clock was started.  I rotated the farms between tests so that each type of farm appeared in each of the 4 available map locations exactly once.  E.g., the straight cattle ranch (no switching of herd types) was placed in the South location for test 303a, West for 303b, East for 303c, and North for 303d.  Test data is tabulated on sheet 2 of the zip file attached; sheet 1 contains charts summarizing the profit data for each test.

Although the testing scheme is far from exhaustive, the results are so consistent that I feel confident in saying that the strategy of switching cattle farms to goats is the most profitable use for ranches in the first 5 years.  My next series will explore the effect of switching back to cattle once the original breeding pair is slaughtered.  Your feedback and comments are welcome, and I hope this proves useful to someone beside myself.

Regards, ET.  

[Egg]

  Switching back will get you the same result....

[Coconut Kid]

...  I thought some research ... might be useful, so I designed a test bed containing 4 ranches.  I've observed (and even read in this forum, I think) that 7 "G" squares out from the ranch building is the maximum (or at least the optimum) range for cattle browsing.  So I gave each of the ranches 7 clear squares in all directions, and put in 2 fully staffed teamster offices and docks, one pair to serve each pair of ranches (1 cattle + 1 goat ranch).  ...

Interesting observations with the details now mostly lost because the attachments were lost in a site move.

The "G" squares are surely the tiles of the Green Grid as opposed to the "Yellow Cluster Grid" which may be switched on as an overlay. Whether seven or eight tiles is the PI imposed "invisible" fence limit, the concept of a fence seems to have compounded the problems of the Ranch. For players to be willing to use the Ranch in gameplay, it has to be "modded" to correct PI's serious errors.

• Mod the bldg.dat file to remove the "invisible" fence
• Mod "something" to get rid of the starving people warning which is triggered by the cows and goats

.
The editor paint tool can not be used to improve the grass available for the animals. Without the fence, players will be encouraged to place the Ranch in a reasonable zone.