Official Thread of Michael Pachter Predictions

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Originally Posted by Hero

Instead of...you know...buying a system for the game they want so bad. I thought that was part of the point of consoles.

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Part of the point of a console is to pay an extra few hundred dollars because there's one thing you want on a system you otherwise don't care for?

I'm going to go with the point of a console being to pay one price for a system that will consistently and reliably play every game made for it just as the developers intended. Having exclusives isn't the point of a console, it's a marketing reason to make you purchase from a specific company.

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Which still doesn't cover how he's capable of being so incredibly wrong publicly, yet still to be trusted by gamers. Only reason I can think of is he tells them what they want to hear.

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Next you'll be arguing about when a weatherman said it was going to be sunny out and it rained instead.

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Originally Posted by James

Sorry, no. The future is not phones and tablets. That's the present you're thinking of. I don't know what the future is but, while phones and tablets will have their place, they're not It. The mobile marketplace is a combination garbage-dump/wasteland, and Nintendo is smart to steer clear of it.

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Nope, people are not going to stop buying phones and tablets and they won't stop buying games on them. They're just now hitting markets like China and Brazil and that's where it will really take off. The game market is still sorting itself out, we'll see where it is headed, but it's not a fad.

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Originally Posted by James

The point, though, is that Nintendo needs to be in control of their own hardware. It's more important to them than money. Whether it's more important to them than profitability is something we'll see over the next year or two.

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If they need to be in control of their own hardware, they need to release good hardware. Compare Apple and Blackberry here.

Do good games happen? Sometimes.

On all formats? Yes.


Good talk.

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Originally Posted by MechDeus

Next you'll be arguing about when a weatherman said it was going to be sunny out and it rained instead.

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What's the bit Lewis Black does again? About a weatherman being off in his prediction of snow by about a foot, and how if a roofer was off on his estimates by a foot, he'd be in jail?

Really matters how off that weatherman is about the sun I suppose.

Also, while you cannot 100% accurately predict weather or market conditions at all times, I'd think the resources and tools for the latter would get you closer to 100% than the former.

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Originally Posted by Hero

Also, while you cannot 100% accurately predict weather or market conditions at all times, I'd think the resources and tools for the latter would get you closer to 100% than the former.

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Nope. That's not how it works. Actually predicting the weather is far easier than predicting the market.

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Originally Posted by Hero

What's the bit Lewis Black does again? About a weatherman being off in his prediction of snow by about a foot, and how if a roofer was off on his estimates by a foot, he'd be in jail?

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It's almost like he's comparing two completely unrelated things for comedic purposes.

Pachter is basing his predictions off trends, history, the way the market is going, etc. He's not actually psychic. A completely random fire can break out in a manufacturing plant in China, stopping production and driving up costs of a specific part which in turn creates a scarcity of something needed for production during a crucial time that completely throws off a company's predictions, while at the same time a popular new trend simultaneously diverts the public's attention to a different product while the other dependent product crashes in sales for a while. No amount of resources and tools can give you a consistent view that syncs up with every single possibility.

Hm this thread is going places that will be interesting and worth my time...

it's not, but if i keep looking at it i'll be compelled to reply and not do productive things or even fun not productive things

http://www.pocketgamer.biz/r/PG.Biz/...ws.asp?c=55761

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"According to our estimates, the value of the App Store market in the last 12 months is $12 billion," added Kriese, "but the problem is, it's all hit driven.

"Our estimates suggest less than 0.1 percent of games on the App Store are ever what we would call successful."

Essentially, it's Wooga's mantra that, without a hit behind you, you're nothing. You're a nobody.

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I'm sorry I went to bed early last night and missed all of this. Diff is 100% right. More shocking than anything Pachter said is that we have people on TNL who don't realize that phones and tablets are the future of gaming. That future isn't even that far off. They'll overtake the PS4 and X1 in terms of power well within this generation and the Wii U much sooner. All you need is a cradle with HDMI out or faster streaming tech, and consoles are over.

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Originally Posted by Shin Johnpv

http://www.pocketgamer.biz/r/PG.Biz/...ws.asp?c=55761

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Nobody said it was easy, but look at that number - $12 billion in the last year. Do you know what the number was five years ago? Zero. So we went from zero to $12 billion in five years. What do you think the trajectory is - where do you think the number will be in 10 years?