Official Thread of Michael Pachter Predictions

Until they do something so I don't have to play phone games with digital pads that take up a quarter of the screen, fuck mobile gaming. I'll stick with my handheld.

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Originally Posted by Finch

Mobile games aren't the games you want

but they're the games you deserve

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What the fuck did I ever do to you to make you act so mean?

James

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Originally Posted by Yoshi

I'm sorry I went to bed early last night and missed all of this. Diff is 100% right. More shocking than anything Pachter said is that we have people on TNL who don't realize that phones and tablets are the future of gaming. That future isn't even that far off. They'll overtake the PS4 and X1 in terms of power well within this generation and the Wii U much sooner. All you need is a cradle with HDMI out or faster streaming tech, and consoles are over.

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Even Intel is seeing a threat from upstarts like ARM, with their powerful, low power, CPUs.

http://phys.org/news/2013-10-intel-t...g-upstart.html

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Originally Posted by phys.org

The competition comes at a tough time for Santa Clara, Calif.-based Intel, a storied Silicon Valley company that has led the PC-chip business for decades. Its sales surged for years but have flattened out in recent quarters as consumers shunned PCs for smartphones and tablets.

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They've even agreed to manufacture ARM processors, to get in on that lucrative market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XB88WVxBsY

I think this is a different recap of the same summit, but it has additional predictions:

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Originally Posted by A List Daily

At the Game Monetization Summit last week Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter made some bold statements about the state of the game industry and what lies ahead. He see the future of games as one that's broader than ever before. “More people play on a greater number of devices than ever before,” Pachter noted. This device proliferation is a key reason why he believes that non-traditional games are augmenting the core gaming market, and that “The console installed base has peaked,” Pachter said. “I don't think you're ever going to see 500 million consoles out there” which some people have predicted.

Pachter sees the future of console games as looking to expand beyond the standard retail mechanism and some DLC sales. "Destiny will have a recurring revenue model,” Pachter said, referring to the upcoming title being developed by Bungie and published by Activision. “I'm not sure what it is, but they'll have it." Later, Pachter made a guess as to the nature of Destiny's recurring business model: “I think Destiny's going to be weekly installments for a dollar. I think that's a smart model,” he said.

The digital market is the future for games, but Pachter believes not all game businesses see it that way. “Publishers should embrace new business models, not fear them,” Pachter opined. “The migration to digital is an opportunity, not a threat.” While downloadable content is only 15 percent of packaged goods revenue for console games now, that will change, Pachter believes. He feels publishers should learn from the successes and failures of others, looking at why Activision didn't succeed with the subscription price for Call of Duty while people continue to pay for a World of Warcraft subscription, though that revenue is declining.

The casual and social game areas are still attracting new entrants, and “There have been some phenomenal success stories,” said Pachter. “But most publishers only have one or two hits.” It's imperative that publishers learn how to generate new hit titles in those areas. Part of the difficulty in that market is the sheer number of casual games appearing on mobile. “The low barriers to entry keep some players away, like Activision,” noted Pachter. “And free-to-play is free, making profits elusive for most.”

Pachter's vision of the future for business models is a broad one. “There will be $50 games as downloads on the iTunes store, and people will be fine with that,” said Pachter. He sees a variety of payment methods, including installment options. “Microtransactions and subscriptions will become ubiquitous,” Pachter noted. While packaged goods will still exist for traditional gamers, every game will have a digital component. The non-traditional game audience will continue to grow, and advertising is likely to proliferate. “Look at Pandora, where about 4 million people pay $3 per month to avoid ads,” Pachter said. The rest of Pandora's audience accepts the ads in return for getting free music, and Pachter thinks that will happen more and more with games as well.

The platform picture continues to evolve. “Smartphones are cannibalizing the dedicated handheld market,” Pachter said. “Tablets are the new laptop, and the games are getting more sophisticated.” Other avenues are being exploired, too and Pachter sees cloud gaming as becoming more important. “Onlive flamed out, but Sony's Gaikai acquisition may reinvigorate cloud gaming eventually,” Pachter said. “Storage will become less essential if the cloud works.”

“The next generation of consoles is probably the last,” Pachter said. “We expect frequent model updates instead of new consoles.” Moreover, there's going to be renewed interest in the PC, he predicted. “I think the PC is going to make a comeback, the PC will be the hub of all this stuff,” Pachter stated. He feels Smart TVs are a dumb idea, noting that you don't have a smart monitor connected to your computer. He envisions there will be a number of screens around the home, perhaps controlled by a tablet, being driven by a supercomputer in your pocket that we call a smartphone.

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Content is king, more so now than ever as technology levels the playing field. The Wii and DS were underpowered "junk", destined to fail, until they didn't. Nintendo hardware succeeds when people want to play Nintendo games that are only available on that hardware, not because they like the hardware. The 3DS was a bomb until great games started hitting shelves, and now it's the best-selling console on the planet. If Nintendo can start churning out Wii U games that people really want to play the Wii U will turn around as the 3DS did, and if not it won't. A new piece of Nintendo hardware with power on par with the PS4 won't do any better than the Wii U if it has the same games with better graphics.

By now it should be evident to anyone that follows the industry that touchscreen devices dominated by 99 cent apps are not the future of gaming. They're a casual distraction. How can so many people follow an industry for decades and still be so clueless about what drives it? The complete shock from analysts at how well the PS4 and XB1 are selling in a smartphone/tablet world is a great reminder of how little they understand this business.

The 3DS isn't making Nintendo as much money as you think it is.

I sure do see a lot more people running around with 3DS's than any other portable. I think I've only ever seen one PSP on the Muni the entire time I've been in SF.

no the kids only play the minecraft and cookie crumble on tablets now

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Originally Posted by Joust Williams

The 3DS isn't making Nintendo as much money as you think it is.

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The 3DS is printing money, it's the Wii U that's flushing it.