I only added in the word coolness points to dumb it down for you. Not sure if things not measured in numbers, such as social standing, ect. would be grasped by the entire userbase of ANY online forum. But, allow me to break it down.
Your first point is that the market here is not the same as japans, but that they have caught on and we will soon. Actually, I doubt that is true. Gameboys are COMMONLY seen being used by the 16-25 age group over there, as opposed to here, where it is just short of non-existant. Games are much more excepted culturally over there, and this is not something that is just happening. We are not going to "catch on" to japans way of thinking, because for them, creating games has a sense of pride to it, it is a respected art almost. In addition, it is ok to play games almost excessively.
So, if nobody is going to bust out thier psp at the mall, where do you say they will "bust it out"? In the john? Since you have a comparison to cell phone games, i will list the most common places i have seen them used.
a) Waiting for friends at the mall
b) At work, at any retail venure
c) Waiting for a movie to start
I would love to hear some places where people would "bust it out". I'm not against the idea that it coudl work, it just seems illogical to me at this point.
As i expected, you used the "sony made games popular with the adult age group" ruse, with a twist i suppose. Now, I will assume we are talking of adults for the purpose of this argument (if you think that 16-18 year olds or whatever are not worried about thier image, you might be a bit out of touch). The comparison is a bit flawed. All adults have had the time to sit down and watch tv now and then. All that has changed is they might use some of that time to play some games here and there. The argument referred to earlier is "the console market is not the same as the portable". What adult wants to pay $200 for a system that they will use at most 5 minutes at a time? What are they going to replace while on the go to make time for thier portable system? The best argument i suppose would be the music they listen to, seeing as the psp is already equipped to suppliment that. Well, music is a much less involving activity than games, and i see music done in addition to things much more often than not. Its not like "Hey Bob, im going to do the lawn while playing my psp" or, "im going to get some studying in while hitting up my psp."
Baised on this, i just can't see the psp hitting the 35% mark in two years or whatever that most people are proposing.
I forgot one last point to counter. You flame my post for using such words as "coolness" and "point", but it is quite relavant to the market debate. From what i could tell, it is broken down into, "history repeats itself", meaning that nintendo had a solid lead in the console market, and sony broke that, nintendo now has the same thing on the portable, so sony will break that too. Well the counterargument has been showing the dissimilarities of the 2 markets. One argument is that nintendos grasp on the portable market is even sronger than it was on the console when sony broke that. I was just adding some more fuel to the reasons why the two are simply not the same animal (portable and console). In fact, your last line argues that it will be "cool", which was the purpose of my original post.
Recap: Me- Argument as to why it will not be "cool"
You: Statement "It will be cool to someone bc hes a yuppie" No reason why he would find it "cooler" than the numerous other devices that can do the same thing.
-1 COOLNESS POINT FOR DESTIN FOR BOTHERING TO READ THE FLAME
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