What's Eating at Nintendo?

[Scourge]

First of all, Sony's handheld *is* going to be a success, but it won't dethrone the GBA anytime soon. First year, I'm thinking 15% to 20% marketshare. Second year, 30% to 35% maybe. But Nintendo didn't just stop making hardware. They're already developing the GBA2, it *will* be a disc medium, and it *will* have wireless play built in.

As for the the gba library, here, here's a list of stuff, you should pick up, the large majority of which are not Nintendo games, without having to worry about them being ports:

Boktai
Karnaaj Rally
Iridion II
Ninja 5-O
Advance Wars 1 & 2
Sonic Advance 1 & 2
Golden Sun 1 & 2
Castlevania: Circle of the Moon/Harmony of Dissonance/Aria of Sorrow
Wario Ware
Mega Man Zero/Zero 2
Tactics Ogre: Knight of Lodis
Krazy Racers
Lady Sia

That's 18 games. And certainly a LOT of the userbase of the gba was not around during the SNES/Genesis years and there's plenty of goodness out there for them to get on top of that above list, not least of which are the Nintendo Mario games and Zelda: LttP/Four Swords. And there's plenty of other great games for the system. Think of the library of the gba being comparable to that of the PS2 in its good to bad games ratio.

And Nintendo doesn't have a chance in hell of completely reversing their standing in the console race come next generation. The best they can do is fix all the problems the GC has with image by making the machine a slick looking piece of technology, make more commercials like that Who Are You? one, get 5 or 6 bigtime exclusives for launch and be happy to be in second again, not too far ahead of Microsoft.

[AstroBlue]

NES: Not the best system at the time, but it was cheaper and value for money.
GameBoy: Not the best system at the time (Lynx and GameGear were color), but it was cheaper and value for money.
PlayStation: Arguably not the best system at the time, but it was cheaper and value for money.

HISTORY REPEATS.... and so do middle class consumers....

PSP will sell like MiniDisc Recorders... i.e. to young urban professionals, rich brats, and college kids with 10 part-time jobs. I don't see Jonny Poke'mon buying one, and 80% of GameBoy sales were from kids (parents), not yuppies.

I'm think Nintendo should:
* Give significant discounts on licencing royalties to the big developers (Sega, Konami, Namco, Squarenix & EA) and to up and coming developers. This will give them third party support up the kobayashi!!!
* Let Sega runtheir online support, they have the most experience in the industry (Sega Saturn & DreamCast), and could do with the extra cash from it (that is if they can run it for profit....).
* Spread rumour that the "Cell" in the PS3 is a slut and will give all your whitegoods chlamydia.

[AaronChance]

People who think the PSP won't sell are forgetting how well the PS2 sold on nothing but hype. It presold out despite one of the worst launch lineups ever. Nintendo has plenty to worry about.

[Keres]

People who think the PSP won't sell are forgetting how well the PS2 sold on nothing but hype. It presold out despite one of the worst launch lineups ever.

I'm guessing the reason the PS2 sold so well is because of the mass public acceptance of the PS1. Sony doesn't have a previous generation of followers in the portable gaming field.

[Diff-chan]

Keres, no, they only have a loyal fanbase of around 30-40 million users who see Sony as the place to be for gaming.

That's all they need really.

And AstroBlue, Game Boy succeeded for one reason: Tetris. If Tetris came out on the other systems they would've destroyed Nintendo. Yes, that's a big *if* but that's how it is. Game Boy was made by Pajitnov's game. Most brilliant pack-in game ever, and Nintendo knew it.

PSP will sell like MiniDisc Recorders... i.e. to young urban professionals, rich brats, and college kids with 10 part-time jobs. I don't see Jonny Poke'mon buying one, and 80% of GameBoy sales were from kids (parents), not yuppies.

Yea Game Boy is selling to kids, but thats cause kids are the only motherfuckers who Nintendo is selling it too. Remember, there was a time when videogames sold mostly to kids, it was Sony who managed to break that 18+ age bracket to the point now where MORE people who are 18+ are buying and playing games than there are under 18.

And plus, you know - young urban professionals, college kids with 10 part-time jobs (or high-schoolers), and rich brats like Napolm321 are where the money's at. That's where the market is. Sony knew that with PlayStation, that's why they targetted them. That's how Sony has sold 50 million damn PS2s in 3 years. Not at Johnny Pokemon because Johnny Pokemon has to depend on his mother and father to buy him the games, and that doesn't come around too often. Besides, look at GameCube - it shows you right there what happens if you rely too much on that age bracket.

I hate it when people say something like "Oh, Nintendo beat Sega and Atari and SNK with inferior hardware, so I think that's gonna happen again!". Anyone who says that is missing the point. Sony is not Atari, they're not fucking SNK, and they sure as hell aren't Sega. They're smart. They know what they're doing. Remember - Sony fucking INVENTED the portable consumer electronic industry.

You don't think Nintendo analyzed the Walkman before they put out Game Boy? To see what it did right and why it sold? Of course they did. And do you seriously think Sony has no idea that customers like long battery life and whatever? Uhh... of course they do. They invented the fucking industry. If you think that Sony doesn't know how it has to be done... you're the one who's clueless.

And Scourge, yea, 15%-20% market share in the first year is reasonable, but what's that compared to 0%? If Sony can do that, and build to 35% in 2 years, that will be huge and it will be more than enough to crack Nintendo's stranglehold.

[Frogacuda]

And AstroBlue, Game Boy succeeded for one reason: Tetris. If Tetris came out on the other systems they would've destroyed Nintendo. Yes, that's a big *if* but that's how it is. Game Boy was made by Pajitnov's game. Most brilliant pack-in game ever, and Nintendo knew it.

lol, bullshit, man. Everybody played Tetris, but nobody bough the system to play Tetris. I don'tremember any kids ever getting excited over it like they had to play it.

Denial will get you no where. The handheld market is simply different from the console market. It's much more difficult to get people to pay $200 for something that fits in their pockets than something that hooks up to a TV. People don't want a handheld they need to treat like an expensive peice of machinery. If it isn't rugged and it isn't convenient, it isn't going to break out of a certain limited market (hence the barrier with PDAs).

[Diff-chan]

I got the system for Tetris first and foremost, and I used to have awesome link games with my friends. Now, it could be argued that was because that was the only game that everyone had, but still. Quite frankly look back at the software, most of it is cack. There really wasn't much too get excited about on the system, period. Im thinking about the games I had on my Game Boy shortly after release... and most of them are pretty crappy.

Tetris is an amazing game and everyone loved it. The fact that the other systems had what... Columns? And Klax? That shit can't compare.

Besides, I listed an actual *game* for why the Game Boy succeeded. Most of you are happy just saying the system was successful because of battery life or size or whatever.

Sure, sure, maybe nobody bought the system for Tetris, but sure as fuck nobody bought the system for battery life, either.

[NeoZeedeater]

Tetris was a huge phenomenon. There's no doubt it sold systems. The Nintendo name was probably the biggest selling factor since Nintendo-mania was in full swing.

[Frogacuda]

Yes, games like Mario and Metroid certainly had alot to do with it.

Though it seems to me that the handheld market is far less dependant on the existance of a "killer app" than the console market. People don't usually buy as many handheld games as consoles, and it's not a substitute for console gaming. It's generally regarded as a time waster when other gaming isn't availible. People will buy a handheld system because it's cheap and it's "cute" even if there isn't a particular game motivating the purchase.

Pokemon still showed that the killer app phenomenon can happen, but I don't think the GBA sales were pushed by any one game as much as just practical features and well rounded lineup.

[NeoZeedeater]

Tetris helped widen the audience for Game Boy. I was in high school when the GB launched and there were quite a few teenage girls who bought the machine to play Tetris.