It would be a huge mistake if the NX did not launch in 2016 for a couple reasons:
- The Wii U is like a perfectly shitty combination of the GameCube and Wii situations. It is selling poorly like the GameCube and underpowered relative to its competition like the Wii.
- If the Wii U (and 3DS?) is (are?) drawn out another year, one of two things has to happen. Either there will be dearth of support in that final year, or there will be one in the first year of the NX. Think back to the 3DS launch. The landscape was barren, so essentially all resources were redirected to 3DS games. Then the same thing happened with the Wii U, because Nintendo isn't big enough to support two platforms by themselves. Imagine if they try to temporarily do three. BTW, this is also why I continue to believe the NX will at least attempt to replace both the 3DS and Wii U.
It still came out for it, and the delay was only 1 single month. It's not like Gamecube owners had to wait a year or 6 months. Wii version came out in November and Gamecube version came out in December.
Releasing 12 months after developers get initial dev kits means there's going to be no software at launch. Initial dev kits are little more than computers with roughly estimated specs. So releasing in 2016 is asking for a lack of software from 3rd parties, or asking for really shitty rushed ports from 3rd parties. That didn't work out so well for Wii U. Where developers got initial kits 18 months before the system released, and even then those initial ports were rushed and full of issues. We already know the "NX" will be replacing both the 3DS and Wii U since the NX is just the platform/os their next Handheld and Console will be running on.
It makes better sense for them to release in 2017 so developers, including themselves have some substantial software to release the console with. It also gives them a better chance to be at or above current gen specs with out breaking the bank.
I agree on the third party front, but if they have Pikmin 4, a version of open world Zelda, and a couple more first/second party games, that would make for a compelling launch with minimal third party support. Third parties could also likely get ports ready in a year, which would be new to Nintendo-only players (word "gamer" intentionally not used).
I'm not even sure what the NX *is*, so without that knowledge it's tough to say when I think it's coming out. I doubt they want to ride another two Christmases with the Wii U though, even if next Christmas has a Zelda game.
The bringing "new" to Nintendo-only player ports didn't work out for the Wii U and I doubt it would sell NX's. Besides the fact that they don't want to sell the thing just to Nintendo die hards, that gets you Wii U sales. They need to sell this, and push this to everyone, which means shitty rushed ports of old games from the PS4/Xbox1 aren't moving units. Also like Diff has said not much is not about what exactly NX is. IMHO based on everything said so far its going to be a handheld and a console that share an OS, whose chips are in the same hardware family. I really think the first thing released is going to be the handheld, which would make sense since the 3DS is 21 months or so older than the Wii U. Maybe the handheld will release in 2016 but I doubt the console will.
How about new Zelda on WiiU, then a remake shortly after on NX? Best of all worlds.
I understand all of your arguments, so will there be no Wii U and 3DS games for a year or nothing after launch on the NX? There is no Door #3. I think we've seen the last major announcements for Wii U and 3DS, which would make a 2017 NX launch a long time to wait.
edit: I guess MSFT pulled the same move, and they only had one platform, so it's feasible.
Last edited by Yoshi; 13 Nov 2015 at 02:17 PM.
Plus outside of bigger titles, Nintendo likes to announce shit 6 months before it comes out. There could still be shit being worked on for the Wii U and/or 3DS for the second half of 2016 and they won't be announced or heard of till E3. Pikmin 4 for instance hasn't had an official announcement and could be pushing towards a late 2016 or early 2017 launch. There could be a small miracle and Retro is working on a real Metroid title for Wii U for 2016. The point is they could have shit in development or hell even shit that's close to be done that we won't know about till E3 of this year. Plus MS has done it before, and hell so has Nintendo. I remember the N64's last two years being pretty fucking anemic.
My point is yeah they're stuck between a rock and a hard place, but rushing out hardware and games for new hardware isn't the best move for them. The NX console needs to be competitive, needs good solid software from them and 3rd parties, and needs a launch that's well planned and well thought out. I think it's better to leave a system that isn't going to sell no matter what out there for another 12 - 18 months, than rush out the next generation of hardware and make the same fumbling mistakes that were made with the previous console.
Honestly the longer they can hold out, and closer they can release near the PS5/XboxTwo (well as long as their hardware is competitive to those) the better IMHO.
It seems like the Wii U is just now getting some traction (it just passed Dreamcast's install base this month). It would be phenomenally stupid not to wait until after the holidays to assess what's going on with the numbers before jumping full-on into the next thing.
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