Next Gen War

[SpoDaddy]

Let's not be fools about the subject. The PS3 would have sold like hotcakes at $600 on launch if the units were available. If any happen to pop-up in stores between now and Christmas, they'll fly off the shelves faster than a rabbit gets fucked. At $600. Thinking otherwise is borderline delusional.

Be realistic; if PS3's were readily available there would be no secondary market for them (thus eliminating all the people buying them just to sell them). You really think two million people would line up on launch day to buy PS3's for $600 in this country if there was no resell value and no fear of not being able to find one? If the PS3 is so successful, why are software sales at a record low for a major system launch?

Besides, it's irrelevant because as John pointed out it's the year following launch that matters. N64 and Cube had insanely successful launches, but lack of software in the first year doomed them to last place for the rest of their cycles.

A report I read yesterday estimated that about 130,000 PS3's have shipped to North America so far.

[Gooch]

Be realistic; if PS3's were readily available there would be no secondary market for them (thus eliminating all the people buying them just to sell them). You really think two million people would line up on launch day to buy PS3's for $600 in this country if there was no resell value and no fear of not being able to find one?

2 million people lined up? Probably not, but the PS3 would still be selling at an impressive clip, perhaps dwarfing the sales figures the 360 and Wii garnered during their launches. Your previous post about the PS3 launch painted a similar picture to the 360's languishing on the shelves in Japan, and that just wouldn't have been the case, even at $600.

If the PS3 is so successful, why are software sales at a record low for a major system launch?

One reason may be that most people who wanted a PS3 weren't able to get one. The PS3 has sold out everywhere, but the size of the user base isn't there yet to generate the kind of software sales like the Wii, 360, and the major past-gen consoles were able to enjoy at launch.

Also, I would think consumers would be less inclined to make whimsical launch title purchases after shelling out $600+ versus $250+ for the Wii and $400+ for the 360. Consumers generally set a cap amount of what they're willing to spend on leisure and entertainment, especially during a time of rising fuel and heating costs (though these have somewhat settled), a declining housing market, and higher interest rates. The PS3 itself takes up significantly more of that cap than the Wii or 360, leaving less dollars to buy games. Personally, I'd be more inclined to buy a game at launch that I normally wouldn't, like Trauma Center, if I only spent $250 versus $600 for the hardware.

Finally, it didn't seem like PS3 bundles were forced onto consumers like they were during the last gen launch. I could be wrong on this one as I wasn't really paying attention to what retailers like EB Games and Gamestop were offering.

[Drewbacca]

The Costco near me has had 6 PS3's in it for the last two days that they can't unload. Everyone who comes in looking for a Wii is told about the PS3's but nobody's taking them. Not that one store is really indicative of how successful a launch is, but Sony made some big mistakes this time around and it will more than likely cost them market share to Xbox 360 (or Wii, but we'll see).

I think Sony will still dominate. I'd be gladly surprised to see the 360 owning the PS3 but I'm not holding my breath.

The positive word of mouth from Nintendo's new system is really selling the system. As a multiplayer system it blows the roof off of the Xbox 360 and the PS3. I'm glad I have a 360 for games like Halo and Gears of War. The Wii works so well because it's a good alternative to what's being served by the other parties.

[Gooch]

The Wii works so well because it's a good alternative to what's being served by the other parties.

Exactly. As I said before, Nintendo is running a different race. They're not in this next-gen war like MS and Sony are.

The Costco near me has had 6 PS3's in it for the last two days that they can't unload.

Wow!

[avatar]

Exactly. As I said before, Nintendo is running a different race. They're not in this next-gen war like MS and Sony are.

Wow! I would have never figured that out! Nintendo's only been saying that since the day they hinted at a new console

[Drewbacca]

Shut up avatar.

[Schlep]

I think it's laughable that people still believe Sony's gonna dominate jack crap in this country with a $500+ price tag up against a $300 360 and a $250 Wii. Sony priced themselves out of competition here, and unless they can change that, they're in Saturn/3DO land.

[Brisco Bold]

The Costco near me has had 6 PS3's in it for the last two days that they can't unload.

The Ajax one?

Are they 20 gigs? I had a hard time getting rid of those too.

[Shin Johnpv]

One reason may be that most people who wanted a PS3 weren't able to get one. The PS3 has sold out everywhere, but the size of the user base isn't there yet to generate the kind of software sales like the Wii, 360, and the major past-gen consoles were able to enjoy at launch.

Also, I would think consumers would be less inclined to make whimsical launch title purchases after shelling out $600+ versus $250+ for the Wii and $400+ for the 360. Consumers generally set a cap amount of what they're willing to spend on leisure and entertainment, especially during a time of rising fuel and heating costs (though these have somewhat settled), a declining housing market, and higher interest rates. The PS3 itself takes up significantly more of that cap than the Wii or 360, leaving less dollars to buy games. Personally, I'd be more inclined to buy a game at launch that I normally wouldn't, like Trauma Center, if I only spent $250 versus $600 for the hardware.

Finally, it didn't seem like PS3 bundles were forced onto consumers like they were during the last gen launch. I could be wrong on this one as I wasn't really paying attention to what retailers like EB Games and Gamestop were offering.

Yeah but in Japan the PS3 is seeing a tie ratio of less than 1, we're talking a tie ratio of like .7. Which means everyone buying a system isn't buying a game for it. I think in the US the tie is something like 1.5 or maybe less, so when you combine Japan and the US the tie is barely 1. I think that's pretty bad. I don't know what is up with Japan, that tie ratio there is really bad. In the US I can give you that after spending 600 bucks on the system plus money on component or HDMI cables people are less likely to buy multiple games. For Japan though I just don't know what to say about that.

I do agree that no matter what, any of the major systems would sell out at launch that is pretty much a given, even if Sony had a million at launch it would have still sold out.

[Shin Johnpv]

I think Sony will still dominate. I'd be gladly surprised to see the 360 owning the PS3 but I'm not holding my breath.

I don't think they will. I think in Japan they've pretty much handed the market to Nintendo. As far as the US I think it's still a toss up with either Nintendo or Microsoft taking the lead in sales. Europe I have no fucking clue, never been able to predict how they'll swing.

I just have a hard time seeing Sony dominate this time around. I think Blu-Ray is to Sony what Carts where to Nintendo with the N64 and I think it's going to cost them their market leadership. They've just made so many mistakes and have been so arrogant this time around. I think they would be in a much better position if they had released the PS3 with out Blu-Ray, I bet they would have been easily 200 - 300 dollars cheaper then, and they would have launched with a decent amount. Since the big problem they're having getting units available seems to be problems with the Blu-Ray diode, since it's just not at a mass market production level yet and they aren't getting good yields. I think Sony has placed far too many eggs in the Blu-Ray basket and it's going to come back and bite them BIG TIME in the ass in the coming years.