Originally Posted by
KLaw
Pirates-Yankees deal in win-win
Friday, July 25, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry
Xavier Nady has spent most of his career as a lefty-masher who didn't hit right-handed pitching at all, and only started to hit righties a little bit in 2007 before exploding against them this year in a career season. He's not likely to keep hitting at this pace, certainly not into 2009, but the Yankees needed a bat for left field with Hideki Matsui's return uncertain, Johnny Damon nicked up, and Jorge Posada probably only suited to DH the rest of the way. In the best-case scenario, where all of their outfielders are healthy, the Yankees could platoon Nady with either of the two left-handed hitters.
Damaso Marte has been very tough on lefties his entire career, despite his reverse platoon split this year (probably just sample-size issue). He comes from a low slot and throws slider after slider, using it more than he uses his fastball, throwing enough strikes and keeping the ball down. The Yankees lacked an option to come in and get a good left-handed hitter out late in a game, and Marte fills that role without requiring the use of a roster spot for a one-out lefty specialist.
The one player going to Pittsburgh with major league experience is Ross Ohlendorf, who projects as a good late-game short reliever, perhaps a closer but at least a solid setup man. He has an above-average fastball at 92-94 mph, an average slider that flashes plus, and an average changeup, and his command has been much better since he moved to the bullpen after working as a starter at Princeton and at the start of his pro career. I see no reason he couldn't pitch for the Pirates right now, and the difference between him and Marte for the rest of the season will be less than half a win, and could easily be zero.
The revised Pirates-Yankees trade looks slightly better for the Pirates. Daniel McCutchen's velocity has gradually improved since college, when he was mostly 88-90 mph, to 90-93 mph now. While he lacks a true outpitch, he has above-average command and control and should be able to work as a solid fifth starter in the big leagues. Jeff Karstens is sort of a poor man's McCutchen, a sixth starter in the big leagues who is nice to have in Triple-A but shouldn't get regular turns in a rotation. The Pirates could use him now, however, with Tom Gorzelanny on the shelf and John Van Benschoten getting pounded every fifth day.
Among the game's top prospects if we're only considering his ability, Jose Tabata has great hand-eye coordination and good bat speed, and I think he'll hit for power down the road despite his short stature because he makes solid, hard contact. Or, at least he made solid contact before mailing in his 2008 season, one in which he earned multiple unofficial suspensions for his behavior and took a lazy approach to at bats, swinging right through 90-mph fastballs down the chute. There's a high probability that Tabata never amounts to anything in the majors, but a year ago, the Yankees wouldn't have dreamed of including him in a deal like this, so the Pirates are buying low on him much as the A's bought low on Josh Donaldson.
The best sign in this deal is that the Pirates didn't place some ridiculous value on finishing over .500 this year and breaking their streak of losing seasons. Instead, they broke with the Dave Littlefield pattern of never bringing down their trade demands and failing to flip players for prospects at the trade deadline and consummated a deal. Whether or not it was the best deal available -- one front-office exec told me tonight that he felt that the return was "a joke" -- at least it's a completed deal and a sign that the Pirates are serious about rebuilding. For the Yankees, they give up two players unlikely to ever pitch for them, a good right-handed reliever in a year when they have a few of those, and a problem child with a big upside, which isn't much to give up when you're playing for right now.
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