Official Thread of Michael Pachter Predictions

[Yoshi]

It'll sure as hell outsell the Wii U.

[FirstBlood]

As Pachter said, the development costs of iOS are dirt-cheap, good because indie developers can make stuff, bad because no one gives a fuck as long as numbers appear on the screen when you poke the jewels together. It's really fucking sad, but that's what's happening.

Is that what's happening?

Because I'm pretty sure there's all kinds of successful creative content happening on iOS. Sure the runaway billion-dollar successes are the dumb puzzle games but there's plenty of people looking for and buying the good stuff. I don't see any reason why JRPGs and Adventure games can't thrive in the mobile space, it just requires developers that want to make good games instead of big dumb companies chasing the next big casual puzzler.

[Shin Johnpv]

Japan isn't dropping the 3DS any time soon.

[Diff-chan]

I am basically in line with Finch on this. I like Nintendo, I want to see them around forever, but they are run by people who appear more inept every day and are more interested in squeezing out profits from a dying market than they are building the future of the company and the industry. We need Yamauchi back.

[Yoshi]

Japan isn't dropping the 3DS any time soon.

Japan is almost completely irrelevant.

[Finch]

Is that what's happening?

Because I'm pretty sure there's all kinds of successful creative content happening on iOS. Sure the runaway billion-dollar successes are the dumb puzzle games but there's plenty of people looking for and buying the good stuff. I don't see any reason why JRPGs and Adventure games can't thrive in the mobile space, it just requires developers that want to make good games instead of big dumb companies chasing the next big casual puzzler.

I'm generalizing. I would like to see more about the good games that i'm missing, because i'm sure there are at least a few. I'm not sure if it did well, but Ghost Trick was really great on my iPhone, Layton Brothers was good but could've been better (and i still want a sequel). Adventure games and visual novels would be great on the thing as long as they aren't donked like Ace Attorney. I'd rather play Steins;Gate on a tablet or iPhone than on any other platform.

[Finch]

Japan is almost completely irrelevant.

Except in mobile revenue

[Yoshi]

Holy cow. It's also interesting how successful Android has been in gaming there compared to here.

[Finch]

Aaaaaand Puzzle and Dragons is blowing up on 3DS and DQVIII is bombing on mobile. what a world

[Diff-chan]

It's also worth noting that the DS launched at the end of the year while the 3DS launched at the beginning, so the DS gets an extra holiday season in sales comparisons. I'd be interested in seeing sales comparisons by 12 month increments to negate that.

The 3DS in 2013 has been practically flat versus last year - according to Wikipedia, about 4-7% above 2012. By contrast, the DS' second full year sales were up almost 80% from its first full year sales. It's less from an absolute comparison, it's less from a relative comparison.

The 3DS is making decent money right now but it's not nearly as successful as the DS was and it's not the basis for long-term growth and a sustainable business model for Nintendo.