Official Thread of Michael Pachter Predictions

[Yoshi]

For it to not be a fad (for nerds only)

I think you're confusing a fad and a niche. If nerds want it in 2014 and still want it in 2019, it wasn't a fad.

[Diff-chan]

For that to happen it actually has to deliver.

[Yoshi]

Obviously, but people who have tried even the development kits have been very impressed. Unlike 3D, this actually changes the way the game is played.

[Joust Williams]

It's a game changer for us but probably not for everyone. The challenge in the gaming realm will be can you develop for it without adding extra cost (you can't just hit the 'VR-ify' switch).

I can see a subset of people paying a premium price for the application though.

[Diff-chan]

Obviously, but people who have tried even the development kits have been very impressed. Unlike 3D, this actually changes the way the game is played.

That is why I am cautiously optimistic. Actually it's probably more like positively skeptical.

I think it has a chance but I'm not jizzing over it like Frog just yet. I need to see more.

Edit: the people who got the early kits wanted to be impressed. They are fanboys.

[Yoshi]

Edit: the people who got the early kits wanted to be impressed. They are fanboys.

That's probably a fair assessment.

[Tain]

I've tried and been unimpressed by 3D, but I've tried and been very impressed by Rift DK1 and DK2. And I didn't even buy the DK1!

The content concerns are totally valid though. We do need more than indie shit. There are a few bigger PC titles on the way, though (Star Citizen, Elite, Planetside 2, probably whatever Valve's got), middleware all over is already supporting it (UE4 is awesome, will probably be huge this gen, and supports it very well), and I wouldn't be shocked if Sony's headset leads to official support in stuff like Battlefield down the line.

[MechDeus]

I liked 3D in a number of the games I played that had it but it probably won't stick around until higher refresh monitors and glasses-free effects are the norm. I was especially disappointed with it being removed from FFXIV when they went from the old engine to the new one, because it was a really great effect there. Oh well.

It's the eternal "add-on" list of issues.

[Bacon McShig]

I think he's spot-on for the short-term. VR adoption isn't going to reach any big milestone on the back of gaming applications. VR for games will only be more than a niche endeavor if VR usage somehow catches on outside of games, and I only see that happening with a protracted, unyielding fight against consumer apathy.

The initial content trickle for that kinda stuff is going to skew overpriced and/or underwhelming just like the recent wave of 3D media did; It'll either take forever to build up a consistent pipeline with stuff people want to pay the added cost to use, or, more likely, choke itself out before it ever gets near that endzone.

[Rumpy]

It's going to be a few years before games of any substantial quality and play length will come out. VR requires an entirely new approach to UI and game design that needs to be figured out before it catches on. I've heard that developers feel really weird after working with it for awhile and that's concerning. It confuses the senses and fucks with your brain, there's a 'coming back to reality' process.