Official Thread of Michael Pachter Predictions

[Finch]

Sorry, 3DS and WiiU sold a combined 5,026 units last month. It's over.

[Yoshi]

By now it should be evident to anyone that follows the industry that touchscreen devices dominated by 99 cent apps are not the future of gaming.

All you need is a cradle with HDMI out or faster streaming tech, and consoles are over.

[Finch]

All you need is to make your tablet a console

i'm really not sure how anyone could compete

[SpoDaddy]

That's nonsense. Why would the average gamer prefer putting their phone or tablet in a cradle to play videogames? It's all about the games themselves. The ecosystem, online play, the controller, and several other factors are much more important than the console's hardware itself. The hardware is just the game delivery mechanism. Why else would people line up in droves to drop hundreds on a plastic 3DS that's orders of magnitude less powerful than their phone?

The disruptor that ends console gaming as we know it hasn't come along yet. I'm sure it will someday, but until then it's silly to pretend iPhone gaming is an existential threat to consoles.

[YellerDog]

This is why Peggle 2 is an Xbone Exclusive.

[Yoshi]

That's nonsense. Why would the average gamer prefer putting their phone or tablet in a cradle to play videogames? It's all about the games themselves. The ecosystem, online play, the controller, and several other factors are much more important than the console's hardware itself. The hardware is just the game delivery mechanism. Why else would people line up in droves to drop hundreds on a plastic 3DS that's orders of magnitude less powerful than their phone?

You just answered your own question. Exclusives become more rare with every generation. Five years from now when a multiplatform game hits PS4, X1, PC, iOS, and Android, what would be the incentive for buying a console, when people likely already have the phone that could then be docked to have an identical experience?

[Diff-chan]

Content is king, more so now than ever as technology levels the playing field. The Wii and DS were underpowered "junk", destined to fail, until they didn't.

You seem to be arguing with TNL posters circa 2004 and I don't think anyone thinks power is the sole driver of hardware success anymore. Well, except for PS4 fanboys on NeoGAF...

As is the 3DS isn't nearly as successful as the DS and the Wii U, well...

The PS4 and XB1 are more successful than the Wii U because they are actually something that people want to buy today. Moderately powerful, affordable machines that play games and have lots of multimedia capabilities. Will that be true in 10 years? Well think about your technology setup in 2003 and compare it to now. Probably not.

The Wii was the system people wanted in 2006, not so much anymore.

By now it should be evident to anyone that follows the industry that touchscreen devices dominated by 99 cent apps are not the future of gaming. They're a casual distraction.

You assume "99 cent apps" is all mobile platforms will ever be. That's just not true. Firaxis put XCOM on iPad last year for $20 and it did quite well. Hardcore games like Battle of the Bulge also have dedicated followings. The more developers get into the platform, the more capable the hardware gets, the more advanced and better the games will be.

[FirstBlood]

You just answered your own question. Exclusives become more rare with every generation. Five years from now when a multiplatform game hits PS4, X1, PC, iOS, and Android, what would be the incentive for buying a console, when people likely already have the phone that could then be docked to have an identical experience?

This assumes that people will be willing to give up the immediacy of having their phone in their pocket for a TV experience. I don't think that's what people want. A universal console is inevitable but it's not going to be as simple as "well your phone is powerful enough so it's now your console".

[Yoshi]

I don't follow. Do you mean they wouldn't want to dock their phone when sitting on the couch but rather keep it in their pocket?

[FirstBlood]

Yes. I think that's kind of a big hurdle. Both for the fact that everyone is super ADD nowadays and wants to check twitter/facebook/dumb shit while in front of the TV and just the logistics of answering/making a phone call when it's docked.